You guys should see the spread on the presidential election between Betfair and, I think, Intrade.

A single trader keeps screwing up the Obama winning percentage every several hours at Intrade leading to a crazy gap in election predictions.

Seems like this should be exploitable, betting at Betfair when the line is screwed up and hedging at other sites.

FWIW, I put $50 on Obama at 4:1 in January, 2007. Oh, strike that... that was just for him to be the Democratic nomination! Already won that one...

Tip: AFL (Sep 27) -- Geelong -15.5 v Hawthorn, bet $200 at 1.93

Put this spread bet on a couple of days ago, just putting it up here before the game starts.

I need some football (American) locks Whacha guys thinking?

Result: -$400

Overall: +$13,727