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-   -   Kill Phil Experiment (this is long - sorry) (http://www.talkingpoker.com/forum/showthread.php?t=9873)

Talking Poker 02-07-07 01:35 AM

That is interesting..... I kind of like the idea of playing blind (at least preflop), in some sort of sick way.

bdawg31 02-07-07 09:22 AM

That does sound intersting - another good display of the power of position/aggression.

I am finding this interesting to do. If anything else - it is showing me how strong aggression can be. I won my first Sit N Go last night - i am not going to post each attempt individually - i wil post updates now and then if i keep doing this.

I had to adjust the HU strategy - which is to go all-in every hand. The problem being that (at least at UB) when we got HU - the blinds are pretty low compared to the stack sizes. So, me pushing every hand was not really putting pressure on the other guy - he could just sit and wait. So, when the blinds were 100/200 - i would raise to 1kish each time i was on the button (well 9 out of 10 times) and i woudl re-raise when he limped about 50% of the time. He would pop me once or twice and i would fold my garbage. I finally 'trapped' him with JJ - he pushed with A10 and somehow the JJ held up.

bdawg31 02-08-07 11:35 PM

First ten results
 
Okay, these are my first ten. I played the system 99% true. Once in a while i would bend when the plays were boderline. For my next ten, i am going to play 'normal' for the first 4 rounds. Most of these i ended up at around 1250ish at the end of the 4th round. I am thinking i can average higher than that if i just play early. I will track where i am at at the end of round 4 and see.

Anyway:

1 win
1 2nd
1 3rd
2 bubbles with both times my hand being better when getting knocked out
1 me screwing up the system (resulting in a loss)

net results - loss of $10

GeoffM 02-09-07 12:38 AM

How does this relate to your ROI when you play your game?

Talking Poker 02-09-07 12:53 AM

This sample size isn't nearly large enough to draw any conclusions.

bdawg31 02-11-07 12:48 AM

2nd set of 10
 
These are the second set of numbers. Slightly better results than the first ten. I have some random notes with some of my results.

---------------------------
10 SnG - $10 - 100% system:
---------------------------
1 - out (AK vs 9s early) -11
2 - 2nd +19
3 - lost (kk vs AK) -11
4 - 1st (i had 2 so's) +39
5 - 3rd +09
6 - out (AK vs AA early) -11
7 - 2nd +19
8 - 3rd +09
9 - bubble (flopped flsh -11
10- 1st (5s beat A8) +39

results

1st - 2
2nd - 2
3rd - 2
bubble - 1
net gain/loss: gain of +90

Talking Poker 02-11-07 01:50 AM

60% ITM for that series is pretty nice.

Looking forward to the next 80 results or so.

bdawg31 02-11-07 11:21 AM

Yeah, this is turning out to be interesting to watch. I am not naive enough to think that 60% is a reasonable long-term expectation. If anything, it is interesting to see what the aggression can to do to the table.

And i think the experience is going to help me in my HU matchups in the end. If you recall - i have been the king of 2nd place finishes.

Talking Poker 02-11-07 11:38 AM

Oh, I recall, all righty.

So, has anyone yelled at you yet? I was expecting to see some fun chat posted here.

bdawg31 02-11-07 04:25 PM

Surprisingly no. I have gotten yelled at once. Part of it may be that the way the system seems to work, often i get to the point where an all-in or fold move does not seem too crazy. There are a few times i have pushed for 1500 with AKs when the blinds are 10/20 - but no one has said anything.

The few MTTs i have done, it has not really worked out where i have been pushing with a big stack too often.

Earlier today - i pushed on the button with around 1200 and the blinds were 50/100 with JJ - got called by AA on the BB and spiked a jack. The guy didnt complain - but then again pushing with JJ in that spot would not seem too goofy.

bdawg31 02-12-07 11:38 PM

3rd set of 10
 
this didnt go as well. But, i personally screwed up two of these, then didnt get any breaks. In theory, i should catch one or two breaks along the way. Still up a little overall - this is 30 total. At 50 i will post all my 50 numbers and take stock of where i am at. Right now after 30 SnGs - i am at +$30. So that is $330 invested to win $30.

I think my 2nd set of numbers was unusually high. I am hoping that this set is a bit low due to me f'ing up and cards not falling my way.

---------------------------
10 SnG - $10 - 100% system:
---------------------------

1 - 2nd +19
2 - out (QQ vs A9;AQvAK) -11
3 - out (bubble K10 v A4) -11
4 - out (5th KK vs A7) -11
5 - 3rd (i blew this) +09
6 - 3rd (KQ vs A10) +09
7 - out (78s vs calin A3o)-11
8 - out (A7s vs 10,10) -11
9 - bubble (66 vs KK) -11
i blew this one
10 - bubble (QJ vs AK) -11
rag flop, turn J - and the inevitable K on river
-----------------------------
totals
1 2nd
2 3rds
2 bubbles

loss of -40

Talking Poker 02-13-07 01:09 AM

How do you blow something if you are following a system? Wouldn't that mean that the system blew it? Or are you not following it properly or misclicking or something?

bdawg31 02-13-07 09:37 AM

When you get to be a HUGE stack - there is in theory some wiggle room for playing. So, if my chip count is like 6k and the blinds are 75/150 - then it suggest raising like 5-6x the BB as an 'advanced' strategy.

Since i am evidently a complete moron - i have to stick to push or fold. The problem with that when it is 3-4 handed and the stacks are that big compared to the blinds (if people get knocked out early) is that the continous push puts a lot less pressure on them since they can be very patient and wait and wait for a big hand.

But, i am going to go back to push or fold since for whatever reason over the last year i evidently lost any ability to play cards.

omahilo 02-13-07 11:57 AM

I think personally that you are thinking about your poker game too much. I mean I like your experimenting with this and I like seeing the results you posted but still...

You went deep in the Aussie Million like a year ago, there is no way you are a bad player... You need to get back to your name and like TP said in another thread just start building your roll back up and play some 3 digit tournaments again because you are a pretty good tournament player and this is what you might need to get your game back to your old level.

Talking Poker 02-13-07 12:16 PM

I've gone over this with bdawg time and time and time again. He's completely lost his confidence and he EXPECTS to lose over and over and over again. And it happens. It's very difficult to quantify, but I am a strong believer that your mental attitude (your expectations) affect your play which of course affect your results.

And I'm not talking about that ONE HAND where you take a bad beat after getting your money in with the best of it... I'm talking about the combination of ALL the hands - especially when we are talking about cash games. Tourneys are naturally going to have more variance with many more losses in between cashes.

bdawg31 02-13-07 12:45 PM

I know that mental is a big part of my problem. Believe me - a year of ass kickings can where one down. I try to get refocussed. I try to get my confidence up. Ironically, when i start feeling semi-decent about my game - then i usually get it up the ass again.

I am just trying to grind out the low-limits and accumulate some rakeback so i can slowly get back into the swing of things.


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