Making SuperNove Elite...
 

A guy at PTP (very respected MTT player) is making that he will make SNE this year... WHILE maintaining his regular MTT schedule.

He's taking up to $50k of action. I'm betting $1k against (for now).

Given the below rules that I typed up myself, what are your thoughts? I think this will be EXTREMELY difficult.


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1. Mossified84 will reach Supernova Elite (1,000,000 VPPs).
2. Mossified84 will play a minimum of 2930 scheduled online MTTs between Stars and FTP, with an average buy in of at least $150.
3. Mossified84 will play a minimum of 200 scheduled online MTTs in each of the months of October, November, and December.
4. Other than the above tournaments, Mossified84 will only play $1/2 NL and lower cash games.
5. Mossified84 will play at least 50 live MTTs during the year.
6. Mossified84 will not play cash games while playing 4 or more tables of MTTs.
7. Mossified84 will not play any cash games between 4PM ET and 11PM ET Sunday through Wednesday of every week.
8. Any points from SNGs Mossified84 plays will be deducted from his total at the end of the year when comparing to the 1 million point requirement (ie, SNGs don't count).
9. Mossified84 will not let anyone play on his account at any time during the year, except to take over for him deep in a tourney upon emergency. Mossified84 will set up a webcam upon request.
10. Mossified84 will honor this bet under all* circumstances, including but not limited to family/medical emergencies, natural disasters, etc. Mossified84 MUST reach SNE status (1,000,000 VPPs) in 2009 in order to win the bet.

*The only exceptions to #10 is if Poker Stars leaves the U.S. Market or does away with their VPP program. In that case, the bet will be void.
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i'm planning on doing it this year. anyone want to bet some action against?

and he has maybe 1% chance of getting there with these restrictions, and that is with me being optimistic.

I don't know enough about the Stars VPP program and how difficult it is to earn points, but this seems nearly impossible to me, given all the restrictions, that he will be playing a full schedule at the WSOP this year, etc, etc. I "only" bet $1000, but I'm tempted to bet more like $5k.

Aaron Bartley bet $25k against him.

Oh, and without the above or similar restrictions, absolutely no way would I bet against you. GL.

Is someone escrowing all the $?
Do you have to give him the $ now and can't touch it all year?

He is not escrowing his side (like I said, very respected, trusted guy - I met him in Vegas over the summer). For the other side, it depends if he knows you or not. I didn't have to ship anything and most people taking the bet don't, but if he doesn't know the person, yeah, they would have to escrow.

1. Whats escrow??

And that is a hell of a lot of restrictions. I guess he could get his MTT schedule over by the wednesday then multi-table $1/$2 x 12 or something. Even with this, i say 5% he makes it

well can I bet through you then? I don't want to have $ locked up for a year but I do want in on the bet most likely.

I'll prob bet 2k or less

Is he giving 1:1 odds? that just seems so ridiculous, does he hate money and/or life?

Reminds me of

And we all know what happened there.........

are the 180 person sngs not counted? cause without them it is going to be impossible for him to win.

did every1 get paid? never saw that thread before

Escrowing is having a third party hold the funds to ensure payment at the end of the bet. ie, if YOU (someone he doesn't know) were to bet $100 against him, he would require you to escrow that money with someone (like me). If he fails, you'd get your bet back plus the money you won from him. If he wins, I'd ship your money to him.

Yes, 1:1.

IMO, he's delusional, but I think he really thinks it is possible and is planning to play poker for 18 hours per day. Without the restrictions (just play what you want when you want to), I'm sure he's the type that could do this no problem...

Yep, he cracked and shipped the $$. :)

Correct. No SNGs. Only "scheduled" (meaning not SNG-style) MTTs.

I'd rather not... nothing personal, of course. I just wouldn't want to be on the hook if anything happened... then again, when he fails, I guess I'd get your winnings. Hmmmmmmmm...

Seriously though, think about it as an investment. I doubt it will last until the end of the year, but if it does, think of it as "investing" $x for less than one year and looking at a 100% ROI (assuming he fails). Not too shabby.

Any other investment you could make, like those things you were talking about with your financial advisor, is going to require you to actually hand over the money, and no way are they going to return you 100% in a year.

If you don't trust him to hold the money and ship back double, which I totally understand, I'd be happy to escrow it for you. I'm sure he'd be cool with that.

Ya well see if you can escrow the $, if so I'm in, and maybe up to $5k.

Here is the official bet thread on PTP, so we can always find it easily. I'll put it in the first post too:


And yeah, I'm sure he'll let me escrow for you, but when you decide on a bet amount, tell me and I'll get him to book it.

I'm planning on beting 10k against basically ensuring that since i am a prop bet fish that i will lose. Escrow with tp?

and you have a lot of posts on that forum tp.

He's given up on this one obv. :rolleyes:

LOL, basically.

Nah..... every time you reserve shares and ship for shares and blah blah blah... the posts add up fast if you do a lot of staking. And I do a lot of staking.

His response to your $10k post:

I'm gald, TBH... didn't really want to escrow that much anyway. Scaphism has like $120k invested in the site and is totally trustworthy, so no worries there.

Seriously though... you taking this bet just cost me $1000, didn't it??? :talktothehand

He has to play like 120k hands a month minimum at 1/2 to do this. He's going to burn out way before then I think, and when he is playing wsop he'll set himself back by quite a bit. Like April I'm sure I'll be fucking shitting my pants cause he'll be ahead of the pace, but like in october there's little chance he has that fortitude to continue doing it imo.

btw, I have to play roughly 150k hands a month to get to supernova elite at 2/4. Like 5k hands per day is going to get a little daunting unless I don't burn out on this 20 tabling business.

I typed up a post in the main thread on ptp, but decided not to submit it.

Basically I figure that with a $150 ABI if he only plays 2000 MTTs on PS (and the rest on FTP) he will earn about 110k VPPs. That will leave him 890k short of SNE.

At NL200 you can figure to earn .5 VPP per hand (which may be a bit low for Full Ring as I run about .56 at that level), so he will need to play something like 1.78mm hands, or about 148k per month on average or about 34250 hands per week.

If he is playing some fast tables he can easily average 70 hands per table per hour, and if he can play 20 tables on average, that is 1400 hands per hour. So he only needs to play 25 hours per week and he gets there. 8 hours a day on Thursday Friday and Saturday gets it done, or he can play 4 hours a couple days when he busts out of tourneys then he can take days off.

I think that Moss is highly motivated to make SNE just for the pure value of it. Automatically he will get entry into the WSOP ME (12.5k) and probably EPT Championship (20k) as well as WCOOPME (2.5k) and the equity he gains by not having to sell off pieces of these tourneys is pretty big, or he can sell off a bunch of his action and keep the cash. On top of that he will get 3.5mm FPPs worth .016 each at SNE ($56k) as well as 2k, 3k, 4k, 5k, 6k, and 8k worth like 75% in cash (28k) + Freeroll equity which for him is probably at least 5k. So the total value of SNE without the prop bet is approximately $125k on top of any profits made getting there. This should be really enough to motivate him and I think he can do it.

If he can get to about 600k VPP, he can pretty much offset any prop loss with the milestone bonuses and FPP value.

SNE really isn't that difficult if you can 18-24 table NL200+ proficiently (not lose 50k+ doing it) and you are dedicated (which I think someone that plays 2500+ MTTs per year pretty much is).

I think that if I had the bankroll to do it, I could make it playing NL200 and NL400 even playing only after work. That may be pushing it but it really isn't that far out of the question if you have the drive to put in 4-6 hours per night

TP I want to do 5k against him, but I only want to escrow it with you. Cool?

I'm not sure. Don't worry about escrowing with scaphism, if that's your concern. I'll post and ask though.

I agree with Jhill on this. I was going to bet too but decided against it. I think Moss is just wayy too determined to do this.

His response:

So yeah, ship me however much you want and I'll get this booked for you.

Do me a favor and think this over good though before you do it - read jhill's post above. I'm still betting against him and Wes is betting $10k, but I'd still feel badly if me pointing this out to you ended up costing you $5k.

Let me know. I'll have him book it after I receive your $$.

I was thinking about this and I have a question:

If you had money riding on this and he was getting close to winning the bet - would you arrange to play at his tables to slow the action down (ie. timing down with each decision)?

I would think that if there was even a little bit of organization behind it you could drop his hands/hour rate quite a bit...

Fair game (I didn't see anything in the rules to preclude this possibility)? Dirty pool? Completely ineffective?

Seems dirty to me. I wouldn't do it.

I would.

Word up. Play to win

Still want this bet? Ship to me (FT preferred, believe it or not) if you do.

shipped. ur holding onto it the entire time right?

Correct.

If you win, I'll ship it back to you and Moss will ship his $5k to you. If you lose, I'll ship it to him.

You're booked, JD:

Stupid questin...where can you track his current VPP besides getting updates at PTP?

I don't think you can...

Now that TPers have bet over $15k against Moss, I just HAVE to post this so-awesome comic made by GambleAB.

Here's hoping it's accurate.

LOL. Classic.

LMAO @ ab!!!

Those are some serious Paint Shop skillz!

He's going to post updates on his progress a couple of times per week . I'll link it in the OP too.

Latest update, through 1/8: 26,318 VPPs

Quick math here, but after 8 days he is 4,500 VPP's ahead of schedule.

Wes... Moss says you haven't shipped the $10k for the escrow yet and aren't replying to PMs. scaphism2's FT account is good to go. He says you can escrow it with me if you prefer, but just ship to scaph, IMO.

BTW... I fully expect him to be AHEAD of pace for at least a few months...

He's well ahead of pace now (as we expected at this point)... a little more than I'd like though:

1/2 7017 vpps
1/5 15619 vpps
1/8 26318 VPPS
1/10 33559 vpps
1/11 36921 vpps
1/17 53941 vpps