NFL Week 8
 

After a 2-0 NFL record last week (Yea Jets/Falcons) A look at some potential interesting matchups for week 8. All three are road teams (but all are dogs, something rare)

NYJ +1.5 at Cleveland.

I guessed yesterday that this game would be a pick em, and it essentially is... but I like the Jets here. If you look at the Jets schedule, although they aren't a great team, they easily have potnetial to go 10-6 and make th epost season bc of strength of schedule... it's a big game going into their bye week as well (a win makes them 5-3 and winners of 3 straight). The Road doesn't seem to matter , as the Jets won in Buffalo and Tennessee earlier this year, both teams which I think closely resemble The Browns skill level. Oh yea, as a last thing IT'S CLEVELAND

Indianapolis +2.5 at Denver.


This is a very interesting matchup. Denver's D has been stellar, but could ANY D really hold the Colts to under 14 points? If you ignore that crazy game against Tennessee, the Colts havent been held that low all year, and the Broncos haven't scored over 17 points all season. Getting this spread at + FG and a hook for the Colts seems like a stellar bet.

St. Louis +9 at SD

The Rams are a decent team with a lot of +'s in there arsenal. The Chargers have seen mental collapses at times in their defense. I think 9 points is too many to lay here and pick the Rams by cover.

These are are early week looks and I will not be completing any bet for several days -- jus a look into potentials

Love the jets... they have played very tough and will beat the clowns outright, getting the pts is just a bonus.

STL I think could win this game outright as well... SD isnt playing very good right now and will be without Shawn Merriman on defense so I like Bulger to have alot of time and find Holt for a few scores.

IND/DEN game is a hard game to pick... I personally wouldnt touch this game. I really think Denver's defense IS that good to slow down the colts offense, not a completely dead stop but slow them down just enough. Denver's offense hasnt done great this year but the colts defense isnt that great so I can see Denver finally breaking through for possibly 20pts or more. Mike Doss is out for the season so that is one less person to put on Javon Walker so he might break a big play or two. This game could really go either way but right now I think Denver can win this game at home no less.

Rams game jumped out at me immediately, and upon reviewing the above, ZY, it appears Vegas is giving money away this weekend :thumbsup:

wow even i might have to bet STL this week.

STL +9? Can that even be right? Yup... I just bet the Rams right now.

I took the Giants last night (forgot about that bet, actually - I placed it days ago), and I like their team, but they are giving up 9.5 points to Tampa Bay? 9.5? I dunno.... Meanwhile, Chicago is giving up 16.5 to San Francisco? Sure, San Fran is bad and Chicago has been great (well, other than the Arizona game), but this isn't college football. that is a LOT of points.

I'm not betting either of those games (yet), but I think the lines are interesting.

I like the Eagles -6 vs Jax, despite their knock of not covering (let alone winning) lately. I also like Arizona +3.5 in Green Bay.

Interesting week.

Think about how public perception is gonna play into a couple of those lines. The betting public is pissed at the Bears and most of them are saying no way in hell I lay that many points on the Bears again.

Take the Bears, it's really that easy.

Indy/Denver, well again, Joe Public can't believe he only has to lay -2.5 on the Colts against ANYBODY, let alone the Broncos.

Denver tends to rise to the occasion when playing a team that is precieved better than them, covering 8 of the last 10 times playing a team with a winning record.

Denver is TOUGH at home, very tough, other than the AFC title game loss to the Steelers they are 17-2 in home games past three years. Denver is not a place to lay points on the road team.

Keep in mind I am not a handicapper, I just play one on a poker web-site.

Interesting article regarding sports betting from the author of freakonomics:

The Colts are GETTING points here, Denver is the favorite... but several people seem to think of this as a dangerous bet... so I may change this to a no play

I already covered my opinion on the DEN/INDY game and I absolutely agree with Penguin.

If Indy scores 17 points, they win outright. No way Denver scores 17 points, or at least not 20. I'm betting the Colts will score 17. Manning finally hit his stride last week and will just keep on moving. I just wonder if Bailey will be covering Wayne or Harrison.

That shows you how much I don't even look at the lines anymore, embarassing.

I still think Denver can win this game...

The colts havent looked THAT great... They barely beat the jets in a game that shouldnt of been close and they were losing to the TITANS for most of that game till they pulled it out by 1 pt in the 4th quarter.

Dont forget they were also losing to the Redskins at halftime of the game Sunday, the final score is just decieving.

I see the Eagles line has moved from -6 to -8, making me go from liking it to not touching it.

I just made a number of bets on today's games, after doing ZERO research. I took:
Bucs +9 at Giants
Bears -16 vs. San Fran (this bet was for Penguin - I wouldn't have touched it)
Cardinals +4 at GB
Saints -2 vs. Ravens
Rams +9.5 at Chargers
Steelers -9.5 at Oakland

That, my friend, is how we novices do it - glance at the lines and throw some money around. But as poorly as my record has been this year following the "pros" picks, I thought I'd give this a whirl.

Oh, and I bet 2 units on the Saints and Rams, so if you are looking for a couple of locks, fade those for sure...

Jets +1.5
STL +9
BUCS +9

these are my three... feeling good today.

I've got 1 unit on each of Zys picks above, as well as 1 unit on the 3 team parlay.

In other news, I had accidentally threw 1 unit on the Cards to win the WS during the NLCS, got in at +400. I win :D :D

Funny Bet. Packers going to own the Cardinals

Good start for the bears. 24-0 in the 1st quarter.

Good start for Packers too lol. 14-0.

Both the Packers and the Bears held there opponents to 0 passing yards in the first quarter lol.

TB, I don't know who the hell was calling plays for TB today, but if they aren't looking for work already they sure as hell should be.

Bears, I'm telling you, Joe Public took it hard on this one. This game probably made LV's day.

Cards, what can you say, Favre was bound to have a decent day eventually.

Saints, well, they are still the Saints I guess.

Rams look like a safe bet at kickoff, but what do I know?

Steelers-9.5 should be easy money.

As the 4:00's kickoff I say you go even on the day.

I think we got trapped on the STL game... :(

I think I might bet STL hard on the 2nd half line depending on what the line is.

Don't forget that Green and our backup both ran for over 100 yards.

F'in Rams and Jets. :mad:

3-0 yesterday, 0-2 today.

I think I should retire from this whole sports betting thing and stick to poker. Let's review, shall we???

Bucs +9 at Giants
Loser

Bears -16 vs. San Fran (this bet was for Penguin - I wouldn't have touched it)
Winner

Cardinals +4 at GB
Loser

Saints -2 vs. Ravens
Loser

Rams +9.5 at Chargers
Loser

Steelers -9.5 at Oakland
Loser

That right there is some impressive shit, my friends. The game I won was the one I liked the least! Down 6 units on the day - gotta love that!

yeah I was 2-0 yesterday 0-3 today...

I suck at the NFL lol

why Im not Penguin
 

Yuck -- after a nice 5 Unit win yesterday, the NFL kills...

The Colts game was a winner and my thinking was right that Denvers D couldnt hold the Colts to 17 pts or less -- I just didnt see Denver scoring nearly DOUBLE their previous high total for the year though -- luckily the Colts scored extra though and took it down

I am still fuming from the Jets game (as a fan mostly, but as a bettor also). WE GOT SCREWED. That last pass was a clear touchdown and the receive was clearly forced out. He would have landed in bounds with room to spare. I mean this wasnt even close. I can not believe that it was called a no catch and not reviewed. I realize it's a judgement call, but ones judgement can changed after they see a video! HORRIBLE. With all the momentum on the Jets side, they would have won in OT for sure IMO.

As far as the Rams and Chargers game, I knew it was going to be a loser. The line was just too fishy for it not to be. :mad:

The NFL is just too unpredictable this year. I mean how do you explain a team like the Jaguars who beat the Jets 41-0 one week, get worked by a horrible Texans team the next and then go to Philly and shut down one of the league's best offenses and win their first game of the year on the road at that place???? No more NFL bets for me.

Thats why Im 60%+ in betting college while Im LUCKY to be at 40% for the NFL. I want to bet just college but like to have NFL action riding, which ends up costing me.

By far College FB is my biggest winner with College BB close behind

I find that Im A decent size winner in those two, a slight winner in NBA , break even in NFL and a loser in MLB

I dont bet the NBA or college BB enough to tell you if Im a loser or not... I just bet a few games here and there as I see a good chance to win, not a huge bettor of either sport.

OK, but there is something very valuable to be learned here. Yea, -6 units in a day is a bloodletting, trust me I know this, however, in an earlier post in this thread you said you made those picks with ZERO handincapping at all, just being Joe Public and looking at the board.

This should easily dismiss the idea that Vegas wants equal action on both sides of a game to ensure a profit, they let you look at the board and sway you to one side with these numbers, honestly.

I'm not saying to go so far as to fade yourself, but look at the board and find the play that looks the easiest, one that looks like Vegas is giving away money and no matter how difficult it is try to handicap the game looking for a reason to go with the other side. You may never find that reason and in fact it may just be an easy play for you for some reason, but give the other side a solid look first.

I agree with this... I really should of did this with the SD/STL game. I usually do but for some reason I just jumped on STL without really thinking about it and it costed me.

That's excellent advice.

NFL has always been the most difficult for me to win at. I normally only bet the first 5 or 6 weeks and then whatever it is that makes me like a game can never find a "sure" thing. I find college fb to be easier at the beggining of the year as well, but there are still a few games that I can pick out. I guess that could be due to the amount of games that college offers compared to the NFL.