Kopp's Big Hand With Moon
 

In case you didn't see it I'll recap. Play is 12 handed, 2 6 handed tables. Payouts for 10-12th are identical.

To the best of my knowledge Kopp has roughly 20 Million and Moon has roughly 25 Million. The avg is about 11 Mill. Both are top 4 stacks. Moon (from TV only) seems to be playing fairly abc but has been dealt a lot of hands,

Kopp opens the 120k/240k blinds with 5:d:3:d: to 600k . Moon calls out of the SB

Flop: K:d:9:d:2:d:

Moon Checks, Kopp bets 750k into a 1.6 Mill. Moon calls

Turn: 2:h:

Moon checks, Kopp bets just over 2 Million. Moon check raises to 6 Million. Kopp shoves for almost 19 total

Over playing his hand? Played Correctly? How would you play different?

(folding pre is not an option in your responses)

I think it's pretty bad. Especially given the situation - deep stacked, WSOP ME final table bubble, against an amateur.

The preflop and flop play is what I consider standard.

On the turn, when the board pairs and he's checked to, I think it's best to check behind here....cause if the river is a blank, we can either call a value bet from Moon or bet it ourselves if checked to.

When he gets checked raised on the turn - he can only beat semi-bluffs. His shove is wreckless. You can not expect Moon to fold a full house / flush in this spot...cause he's an amateur. You are guessing what an amatuer will do here.

Our hand is really just a bluff catcher now - I don't expect to many 2's in Moon range. If that's the case why not call and peel one off with position. If you're beat, there's a lot of river cards that can slow him down and you'll get more information. By shoving, you let all worse hands fold and most better hands call.

Given the way Moon played the hand - you should expect him to have:

A flush, full house, or pair+flush draw. Your 5 high flush doesn't have very good equity vs this range of hands.

With the amount of chips he had at this stage of the tournament, there's no way he should ever be all in without a hand close to the nuts. He literally cost himself million(s) - in equity at least.

I agree with pretty much your entire analysis except for this part.
I think this turn is an autobet for several reasons

1) WE HAVE A FLUSH!!!

lol, but seriously beyond that, I think there's a ton of value to be gained by betting here from Kx, pair and diamond combos and simply one big diamond.

that being said I think his bet was a little too large. He bet about 2 mill into a 3.1 after betting 750k into a 1.6 on the flop. I think on the turn I bet more along the lines of 1.5 - 1.6 to convince lesser hands to continue

I think we're also not giving Moon enough consideration here. You mentioned he's an amateur and yes he is. He is an amateur on the verge of the Nov 9 bubble and has seemingly been playing pretty straight forward and being hit with the deck. I don't think he's going to get out of line with some weird check raise here unless he has a very big hand in the spot that he's in, so we don't really have to worry too much about FPS from him here.

That of course would lead to the last Q.... so if I bet the turn WTF do I do when Im c/red?

We're 6 handed so our hand is enormous obviously....but I did just mention that Moon is unlikely to get out of line in THIS fashion. Like you said 2s arent in his range much if at all and I dunno wtf he could have thats not a flush or better that plays it in this fashion. I assume I'd probably bet/call the turn (convincing myself he has some pair/large diamond combos enough of the time but will shut down the river with these hands since he doesnt want to risk the majority of his large stack when we've showed so much interested unless hes stronger than us) and then fold the river to a shove. My turn bet would've been smaller so the turn c/r would've been smaller also, leaving me with a large stack

Had this hand occurred against an aggressive player unaffected by the final table bubble approaching etc, then it'd change matters IMO

There's obviously nothing wrong with checking behind the turn to induce a bluff on the river (or a lighter call down) but i think we lose value from lots of hands/decline to protect our hand against large diamonds, but yes I think shoving is very bad.

Is moon the huge dude that seems decent and is just a total cardrack? the big guy, whoever that is, hit's everything, seriously everything, and he admits it, says hes never ran so amazing before.


anyway, I think I'd bet turn and def call his raise and if the board doesnt change much call river. Obv I'd hope to have a better read and a better idea what to do if I'd been playing with the dude for hours

Yeah, he's the big dude wearing the Saints cap.

They showed Moon bluffing a couple of times PF, but never getting out of line at all postflop (beyond a continuation).

I think given the hands he has shown up with the CR by Moon is the end of the hand. No way he doesn't have the flush beat. If he had a 2, given his play in some other hands he either bets out or C/Cs.

I think a call on the turn would have been better given the paired board, crappy flush, and situation in the Main Event with 2 big stacks. Moon doesn't want to bluff much of his huge stack here either.

Crazy, man....Crazy!:cool:

What's Kopp's background? Is he a pro?

The check/raise from would've gotten my attention, but I think I would've put Moon on a big pocket pair with a large diamond.

Would a re-raise just be ridiculously stupid pot control?

I mean, I think spewing $19m in chips with a 5-high flush may be silliness...but he did have a flush six-handed. That's gotta be the best hand 90% of the time.

Considering they were both huge chip leaders, I am not sure if re-raising Moon (obv something less than all-in) would've accomplished anything. If Moon comes back, then I'd guess we'd be folding or shoving...and if he just calls, then we are making the same decisions on the river.

In the situation, I'm guessing bet and then call is the most proper play since the final table is so close...but I think I would've come back with something stupid that got me pot committed if Moon re-raised again (or I would've had to do something silly on the river that got me committed).

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If the river is a blank (doesn't pair the board again, no diamond), is there anybody that doesn't bust out?

If the river is a diamond (or maybe even paint), I might be able to find a way to lay down to a possible boat or something....but I'm pretty sure I bust out on this hand.

If I was playing well the turn is probably a fold unless Kopp had some dynamic that would make Moon play back at him. This line is just so rarely taken as a bluff and there are not a whole lot of 2x hands a person should have here.

Boldness

I think he's a 6th year college student who plays a lot of cards, so classify him however

Billy Kopp is a pro....he's patrolman35 on stars and DurangoDan35 on tilt.

If he had this and decided NOT to raise the flop isn't raising the turn kinda weird

I guess I'm just unsure of what hands would re-raise preflop (AA, KK, QQ, JJ?, TT?) vs just smooth calling. Then if Moon had one diamond, JJ or TT wouldn't bet out on that flop, right?

Of course, I dunno if TT or JJ (with a diamond) would re-raise the turn.

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Can't do that, we have 12.6 left and he's made it 6 mill, we could baby raise then fold but i just don't see the point of putting 2/3 our stack in then folding

If he (Kopp) calls the turn and the river is a blank, how does it play out? Moon has to bet the blank, right? So we fold to that (I'm assuming a simple call leaves us too low)? Man...I don't know if I can do that.
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I realize we have a flush -- but if Moon shoves the river what exactly do we beat?

Short of Moon open shoving, people still fold to a river blank?

I actually think looking at this from Moon's side is more interesting. I mean, Kopps turn 3 bet shove bluff (and that's all that it was - less than 1% of the time he's getting a worse hand to call, and I think I'm being generous with that) was stupid. People make mistakes, and this was a biggie.

But look at this from Moon's side, sitting on 25 million chips to start the hand, flopping the 3rd nuts and then the board pairing on the turn. Assuming played as is preflop, then check/calling the flop and check raising the turn (all of which I think is fine), you've basically put what, 8 million of your stack in and have around 17 million behind. When Kopp 3 bet shoves there, I'd have to seriously consider laying it down.

I mean, Kopp's line is showing enormous strength. It's a stupid (well, reckless) bluff, as we've already said, so the majority of the time, he's going to have a very big hand. I think FH + better flush makes up a pretty huge part of his range, with semi-bluffing and value-shoving with worse making up much, much less of it.

The correct play may be to call the 12 million or so chip raise, but given everything, right there in that moment, I think I might have folded. I absolutely would have thought about it for a few minutes though - I know that much.

It's hard to say, but given the information we have, I think I would have folded.

c/r the turn and then folding to a shove when you have a flush would be utterly silly. And from what I've heard of people about Moon (since I have not watched a single minute of WSOP coverage this year) is that he is extremely loose/bad postflop so expecting him to fold a flush is terribad. I guess that is what influenced Kopp into shoving here because he just thought he hit the lottery against this donk and then didn't really comprehend that his flopped flush could lose to someone this bad.

I don't particularly like c/r the turn with a flush since it can slow down a lot of hands that are just going to value bet the river again if we call the turn or let him give up on his bluff to try to fold our marginal holdings out. I think overall that c/c the turn and c/r the river works out better overall with our entire range of hands that are value betting/bluffing the river than to c/r the turn just given with our most people play.

You know Kopp's not bluffing here? Are you saying he is? Or just that his play only works as one?

In an interview, Moon said the board didn't pair when the money went in...which is obviously wrong and could have changed his decision to call the shove.



In another interview, Billy Kopp defends his play and stands by it...which is pretty lol. In the interview he kind of goes back and forth between making it a value bet and bluff.



If you watch the hand play out again, Kopp doesn't look very confident at all. When he shoves, he kind of sighs like he has no choice. Just from his demeanor, I would not think he's full here.

Kopp may not think he's bluffing here, but since a worse hand calls basically never, that's exactly what he's doing.

I agree with TP, though, that this thread would be more interesting hiding Kopp's hand and debating the hand from Moon's perspective.

Yeah, what Kurn said.

I mean, what hand(s) that he beats is he expecting to call his shove? Not sure I could name one, to be honest.

Great post - thanks for the links.

Yea I agree from Moon's side of things once he raises the turn folding to the shove is kinda strange. If that's the case then just call the turn bet.

TP - if youre Kopp assume you've opened pre....the flop comes out, what's your play on the flop (i assume the same) and on the turn (check behind/bet, and if bet how do you respond to a raise and if its call whats your plan for the river)