How (un)lucky were you in 2007?
 

Everyone thinks they are unlucky in poker, but very few can actually prove it. So I think it's time to break out the graphs for 2007.

Download, install, run:


This program is not perfect and it can't take into account everything - like getting lots of second best hands and other "unlucky" things that can cost you money. But it's spot on for calculating how you did in all in situations vs. how you should have expected to do.

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The software is easy to use, but here are some quick instructions for those of you who are computer illiterate and like things spelled out for you:

1. On the database Tab, select the PT db(s) where you keep your stats.
2. Clhoose "Since January 1, 2007" (or whatever you feel like).
3. Click on Load hands. This will take a long time, especially if you played a lot of hands, but it will work for most everyone. I had 125k hands in my db, and it took a while, but it finished no problem.
4. After the hands have been loaded, click on "Start" at the top. This generates all the goodies.
5. Now go thorugh each tab and play with whatever you like. USe Print Screen to take screenshots and upload them here as attachments as you see fit.
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Back to my numbers.... 125k hands played. I know there are people who play that many in a month, but that's good for me, averaging about 10k hands per month. I'd definitely like to increase that for 2008.

Without posting specific graphs (not sure I want to share exact numbers), I will tell you that my "Game Analysis" graph says I should have won (Sklansky Bucks) about $15,000 more than I did in 2007. Yeah, that stings.

My all in luck graph wasn't THAT far off from expectations (only about $2000 by year's end (there are some hands from 2008 included in the graph)), but it confirms that I really was running badly those couple of times this year when I knew I was running really badly. Late January was bad, but April 2007 = Worst Month EVER. Also, 2007 started off with me running ridiculously well, and I was well aware of that at the time.

I'll attach my "Net Run Line" for my "Just All Ins" from the "Luck Graph" tab.

OK, I showed you mine - now let's see yours.

Seriously.... is there not one person among you who isn't too lazy to make a few mouse clicks and post a screen shot?

Or are you all embarrassed because you whine about how unlucky you are and your Winnings are actually twice your Sklansky Bucks?

That will take forever with all the hands that I've played. I tried to run it twice for last year in December while stuck in an airport that didn't have wireless and it wouldn't load all the hands.

I'll give it another try though. I am actually quite sure that I am going to be above what it was supposed to be, possibly way above (actual winnings above skylansky bucks i mean).

Obviously not all my hands played this year, but here is the cake poker luck things for the year.

Attachment 1814
Attachment 1815

Holy shit! So you're basically a break-even player who runs really, really well??? :rolleyes:

Seriously, how do you get the green line to go above the red one? My computer won't allow that, apparently.

Would especially like to see your Stars and/or Full Tilt graphs.

I played a lot of shortstacking on cake and I usually played a style on there that just stole a bunch of hands preflop against lagtards that folded too much. So, that's why my green line is WAY above the blue/red lines (basically translates into how many pots you steal).

And actually, I ran badly there. Blue line (my showdown winnings) is below my red line (skylansky bucks). i just play goot.

An 8 on the river not withstanding
 

Meh. I should've made at least $12K more in the Moneymaker Millionaire (relevant hands are somewhere in the archive), but all in all, that trip goes on the plus side of the luck ledger.

My gut is basically that bad luck and good luck canceled each other out last year.

Started with $70 back in march when I joined the forum and have over 1k now, so even without using the software I would imagine GL > BL.

If not, then that's awesomer.

I will get some graphs up here later. I only have hh's for half of my hands played. I am down around 9k in sklanksy bucks and my luck graphs are a little over even.

December Graphs
 

These are from December for me (didn't start playing again until December, so December = 2007).

Someone help me analyze these! In all-ins I appear to be unlucky (very small sample size though, about 55 / 5500... am I not stacking off enough?). My "Sklansky bucks" line is way low and my actual winnings is on top, so this leads me to believe that I'm running well...

heres mine.

Tihs reminded me of The Storm's graph...

Apparently he plays "the poker, and not the cards!"