I HAVE to post it...
 

O...
M...
G!!!


Full Tilt Cash game, $1/$2 No Limit, 6 players
Hand History by
HERO (SB): $375.80
BB: $215
UTG: $200
MP: $80
CO: $412.70
Button: $216.40

HERO posts Small Blind $1
BB posts Big Blind $2

Pre-flop: Q:s: Q:h: ($3)
UTG folds
MP folds
CO raises to $7
Button raises to $20
HERO raises to $69
BB folds
CO folds
Button raises to $216.4 and is all in
HERO calls $147.4

Flop: 9:c: 6:h: 7:h: ($441.8)

Turn: 9:c: 6:h: 7:h: Q:c: ($441.8) :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

River: 9:c: 6:h: 7:h: Q:c: 8:c: ($441.8)

Button shows A:c: A:h:
HERO wins $438.80 with three of a kind Queens

wow. wouldn't you ordinarily be up against AK:c: in that spot? Or AT:c: more like?

No way... pocket 5s FTW!!!!!!!!!

I assume you mean pocket 6s.

Yeah, this blew me away. It's been a long time since I've been on this end of the AA vs KK vs QQ vs JJ all in preflop type deal. I *feel* like I'm on the other end of it much more often, but that's probably selective memory.

de-coder: Can you whip up some SQL to help us take a look at that? Ideally, I'd like to see something that looks at ALL the times HERO gets it all in preflop against one villain with PP vs PP. Then, of those times, these numbers:
-How often we have the higher PP
-% of time it gets cracked
-How often we have the lower PP
-% of time it sucks out

Pocket 5s would give your opponent a straight, therefore beating your set. ;)

GG.

No, I meant 5s you :donkey

INDEED! Nice call with the 55.

I'll take a look at the data and see what I can come up with - might be tough though.

Believe it or not - there's a field in the database for all-in and forced all in so I thought I was gold. Turns out it's not used :eek::eek::eek:

There's no way I can get the info out - it's not in there.

---------------

That's a post I started last night sometime. Since then I went back to see if there couldn't be some way to manage this.

So now for the bad news - the data isn't really in there the way I need to provide you exactly what you've asked for. I can't give you a neat and tidy answer on this one.

The good news is - I think I've come pretty close. What you can do is run a query that will return all games in which hero saw showdown, had pockets against pockets, and someone was all-in preflop (I just figured that part out now).

It returns 4 columns - game_id, who_won (player_id of winning player), villains hole cards, heros hole cards. With those columns it's pretty easy to tell whether someone sucked out or not, but yoiu have to do that on your own. I've organized it so the results list in order of who won so the winning hands for hero should all show up at the top (because hero's playerid is usually pretty low).

Of my 10000 hand sample (just one of my DB's) there are only 16 hands that qualify. Of those I won with suckouts:

99 v AA
QQ v KK

and lost to suckouts:

AA v QQ x2

The following hands held up for me:

AA v QQ x2
QQ v JJ x2

and I lost the following hands as I should have:

TT v AA x2
77 v AA
JJ v QQ
99 v TT
77 v QQ
55 v AA
KK v AA

well, that's depressing...

In order to run the query you will need your player_id, which you should know from the last exercise. And now the query:

everywhere it says player_id = 6 change it to your own player_id #.

Have fun.:D

This is awesome. I don't have time now, but I'll take a closer look at it later. Maybe we can make a new thread with simple step by step instructions (cut and paste most from the last one), so other people can run this analysis too. It's an interesting way to measure "luck" (for this given situation), but some people may find pluggable leaks too.

Like you.

Of course it depends on the exact situation, but I'd investigate these hands if I were you:

That's getting it in pretty lightly preflop, IMO. Note that you don't have any wins on the other side of this (JJ is the worst hand your opponents showed up with) and you actually have another - the 99 hand - where you sucked out and cracked Aces.

This suggests that you are getting it all in preflop much lighten than your opponents are (again, in this pocket pair situation only), and that could very well be a leak... and an easily pluggable one.

Thanks for looking into this. As I said, I'll take a closer look at it later.

This is an older DB so a lot of these hands are pretty old now (I can tell by the game_id #). So that's a leak that was plugged a while ago now.