Saturday Night's HW Title fight
 

Not sure how many fight fans we have here -- but I'm throwing a double unit on this play so I figured I'd post it

NICOLAY VALUEV VS MONTE BARRETT.

First off no way does Valuev deserve to be a -550 favorite (he will win in all liklihood but jesus thats ridiculous for him)

the over under is a very interesting bet though, especially bc both the over and under are listed at -110.... 9.5 Rounds

I'm riding the over.

For as big of a man as Valuev is (7'0 320lbs) he doesn't pack that powerful of a punch. He does have 33 KO's in 44 fights which is decet, but the majority of those were against no names. He faught to decision victories over journeyman Larry Donald (a very close fight), and an awkward John Ruiz. His main weapon is his long jab, and he doesn't throw a huge amount of power shots. BEing undefeated, he naturally has also never been knocked out

As far as Barrett goes, he himself is not known as a big puncher (31 wins and 17 KO's). In additon he is known for being a tough fighter, and one who is difficult to hurt. He's been knocked out only 1 time in his career, and that was against Wladamir Klitchsko, arguably the best offensive fighter in the game currently, in which he got up for 5 knockdowns that fight to continue (in other words he has heart) before it was stopped in the 6th or 7th i forget. Outside of that Barrett has shown good form. In his 3 other losses he close a razor thin decision to heavy hitting Joe Mesi (he was knocked down one time one a punch which caught him, but he wasn't hurt at all and was up at 2 or 3), a boring decision to heavy hitting Hasim Rahman (in which he was never hurt or down) and split decision contraversial loss to Lance Whitaker (again in which he wasnt hurt). Whitaker, Mesi and Rahman are all clearly bigger punchers than Valuev (though not as big and massive as Valuev in all fairness)

This is Valuev's US debut, and being one of the four champions and the least recognizable one in the states bc of his lack of exposure, so he is likely looking to put on a show here, so he may try and go for a KO which is the downside to this bet... but Barrett isn't a push over. He's known as the gatekeeper of the heavyweight division and has sent several top prospects back down to medium level status and only promoted a few (Whitaker, Klitchsko, Mesi).

I like the over in this one...if it goes into the 10th we're good... I expect it to go to decision... (plus Im up this week and I expect to be up 3 more units once the mets win one more game)

I was thinking the under, actually, due to Nicolay's sheer size compared to Barrett, but I liked reading your detailed analysis. I have been looking forward to this fight...

This is a solid point

Valuev 7'0 320-325
Barrett 6'3 220-225

So he is giving up 9 inches and roughly 100 lbs (we'll find out today exactly how much in the official weigh ins, these are jus the general area that these 2 usually come in at)

Let's face it, Barrett's not going to win... but that's not to say that Nicolay is going to be a great champ. (Even though I know you weren't suggesting that...)

All it takes is someone who he doesn't completely overshadow (and who has an incredible amount of endurance), and "going the distance" will be tough on his big, 7-foot frame.

JESUS after watching round 1 i wish i could take this bet back if barrett is going to fight the entire fight like this (just winging haymakers trying to KO Valuev, which will result in him getting killed) I thought he'd use a little intelligence my god.... his style better change comin out for round two.... he cant back up straight geez

Edit: Round 2 a little better, but he's still just throwing wild shots.... use ur head man ??

Edit Round 3.... much better and the type of fight i expected... a lot of clinching, barrett ducking under valuev's slow right hand and a 1-2 grab 1-2 grab type fight.... and much less crazy shots

Round 4 done -- a few more crazy shots thrown , and barrett is telegraphing his big shots tremendously.(and connecting a few....lol) more jab and grab boxing would be nice... 5 more rounds to go till the 10th

Round 5 done -- Valuev hit Barrett flush with a right cross and Barrett took it fairly well. 4 more

Round 6 done -- Barrett connects with a HUGE left hook flush Valuev took it well. Three big crosses for Valuev, all taken well. Exchange of powershots both taken.... Barrett going into the corner/agaimst the ropes too much though.... 3 more rounds till the 10th

Round 7 done -- nothing much in terms of damage (valuev did land a few good right crosses) but barrett is starting to look VERY tired.... he needs to get a wind before some BS will knock him out Im concerned about how he looks in round 8

Round 8 -- Valuev nails a HUGE right hand which stunned Barrett (the ropes may have saved him from going down). Barrett lands a big left hand cross from southpaw position which snaps Valuev's head back. Barrett knocked down on a punch which barely hit him.... it seems to be off balance/ from being exhausted. He finished the round with a few shots though... barrett isnt/wasnt hurt, but he's tired... one more round to go

Round 9 -- Both trade shots. Barrett lands several left hooks flush, Valuev returns counter right hands... Round over... round 10 = Win :D

Round 11 -- Barrett Knocked down 2x, corner stopped the fight although he got back up... good over under 9.5 =)

round 3 - alot better defencive play by both, should be a good fight now they have both decided that they remembered how to box

Was this on ppv?

HBO Boxing.

The fight was a little disappointing. I almost wanted a bigger opponent for Nikolai, but he still got the win.

Good bet Zy - too bad I didn't jump on it w/ you. Hey, was it me, or did it seem like Nik completely opened up in the eleventh round?

He did a bit -- i think he saw how fatigued barrett was and wanted a knockout for the US audience. Barrett was knocked down as much from fatigue than the actual shots... and he got that way by throwing ridiculous telegraphed street-brawl type punches the entire fight... everything was looping and nothing short or straight. Funny thing is he did clock Valuev several times flush

ur boy Calzaghe is on HBO boxing next week here in the states. I believe it's his HBO debut but dont quote me on it.... the shitty thing is on the same night a huge fight between the other 2 titlists at supermiddle (168) is being held with Markus Beyer and Mikkel Kessler, and that fight is not being shown. (i guess a danish fighter vs a german fighter, neither with US marketability isn;t too big in the states :( ). I expect Kessler to win and set up a Megafight to unify all 4 168lb titles with Calzaghe....that would be a war....the only issue is a fighter from Denmark vs a fighter from Wales isn't going to go over well in the US (at least with how little they are exposed to the US market) It's too bad though, that'd be a war