NFL week#3
 

N.O. -4.5 vs buff
Giants -7 vs t.b.


7-2 thru week 2

1 unit on each

Giants -7
Houston -4
San Diego -6
Dallas -8.5

Generally not a good idea to give away points in an NFL game, especially if it's more than 4.5.

why? I really don't know NFL nearly as well as college, but I still want to have some bets going on Sunday. But why is it such a bad idea in the NFL, I can still change the bets.

i got atlanta +190 on the money line. I think atlanta is pretty clear the better team here, but people still remember the patriots from two years ago. Too bad the offensive and defensive lines are significantly worse this year for the patriots. I think the patriots end this year 8-8 even with a soft schedule unless Belicheck pulls out some miracle coaching ability.

I've been in a football pool for over 15 years where we have to pick against the spread with 10 NFL games (and 10 college) each week. About 10 years into it I took all of our past pool games (roughly 1,000 games) and ran the stats on the record of home favorites/away dog and home dogs/away favorites. I don't remember the exact percentages but home dogs were some where around a 56% winner and away dogs covered around 52% of the time. So, based on that data, whenever I pick my games in the pool each week my default pick is to take the points unless I have a very good reason not to take them. I've won this pool probably 5-6 times and am currently in first place this year.

Your point on the Pats' O-line is spot on. Matt Light has looked weak in the first two games. On the D-line, I might disagree, simply because the Pats haven't had a pass rush since I can't remember and Seymour is overrated. He was the 3rd best on that line after Ty Warren and Wilfork and didn't play hard on every down. Even in the 16-0 season, they were getting torched by deep middle routes because they couldn't rush the QB. The only reason they went 16-0 was that they could pretty much outscore anybody, and those skill players are now 2 years older and I for one am not certain Joey Galloway is an upgrade over Jabbar Gaffney.

That said, I still think they can beat the Falcons who don't have 2 shut-down cover corners like the Jets, so blitzing will leave Brady with more quick-hit options.

But, then again, I think like a fan. ;)

Im a big falcon fan but this is a no touch game for me. On the road road with a 0-2 pats team.This scares my wallet they will give their best effort against the birds.
But if N.E. loses they are done no playoffs.

Well, if you want some hope, I just checked the injury report and Welker is out, Moss is questionable and Willhite, the Pats' best corner so far, is also out.

Wet field, too. It's been raining here since last night.

Welker is returning punts?

OMFG Lions win. I can like football again? so fuckin happy right now.

Really bad teams

cleve
tampa

rams

The Falcons were ridiculously awful on defensive play calling this game, with a total of 6 or less blitzes the entire game against the pats and when they blitzed, every time they brought the linebackers in that was blitzing to the line of scrimmage before the ball was snapped. The pats looked terrible the past two weeks against deceptive blitzes (cornerback blitzes with d-lineman going in zone for example), but the falcons did not do that a single time this game. That was why the pats had such a ridiculous advantage in time of possession and were really not stopped the entire game offensively. Brady missed 3 easy TDs this game on passes +15 yards and did not complete (as far as my drunken knowledge watching at the bar) a single pass past 15 yards, but the Falcons were just pitiful on defense.

Falcons coaching is terrible and will cost them later in the year when they face an equally talented team in the Saints that is far better coached.

I was probably wrong on the D-line of the Pats though as they looked good against the run today.

FML, still wearing my Browns jersey, debating whether to burn it or not.

Easy call burn it after they lose to cinci next week

Welker is out. Kevin Faulk returns punts.