Article in an older CardPlayer
 

Hand: 10 8

Position: small blind

Preflop action: no raise, six players

Flop:K J 7

Now facing: a bet, a call, a raise, and a three-bet

Analysis: Here's a situation that will cause lots of average players much frustration. There's the illusion that the flop was good for you — a flush draw and a gutshot-straight draw. But with so much action, you'd be unable to confidently lead out even if you hit a 9 for the jack-high straight (which would lose to Q-10), or a heart, giving you the third-nut flush. You're facing three bets in order to win 16 to 21, depending on if the players who are already in continue. That's 5.3-to-1 to 7-to-1.

Recommendation: Muck. It's tempting to play for the swollen pot, but in truth, it is more like gambling than solid poker. What could those four opponents be holding? By the same token, you might call if you've been running real good and try to ride your rush.


Notice the statement I put in bold. Does this strike anyone as VERY odd seeing how accurately Andrew Shykofsky goes over odds in this segment and then ends with "but if youre feeling lucky, go with it" ??


Defendant

no it's not odd, i seem to notice that when i'm on a rush i'm hitting all my draws. poker is about numbers...but it's also about luck.

Luck does not follow the law of series...

Defendant

it is somewhat strange that this guy would throw that in at the end of the piece, but i think that it might actually add a little bit of credibility and real world application to it. we all know that when we are running good, we will make a couple of bad calls, and then get rewarded for it. at the same time, the opposite happens as well.

there are times when the numbers justify every move, but there are also times when you just have to go with your gut instinct, even if it isnt a profitable move in the long run.

I'd play him.

Gut instinct
 

Why would I ever go with my gut instinct if it isn't a profitable move in the long run. My instinct is for getting a sense of whether the guy at the other end of the table is bluffing, or will lay down if I re-raise. I don't (or at least should ignore) any "instincts" about whether the next card will fill up my straight.

Grind, grind, grind.

I really don't believe in rushes much, at least not online.

there is no difference in online and B&M...

Rushes just simply dont exist

The probability of getting AA is the same whether youve seen fifty 72 or fifty AAs that night

Defendant

I would absoulutely fold in this situation, regardless of how many prior pots I had just one since the odds for this hand are independent of those prior pots. As an example, let's say you and a friend bet $1 on the flip of a coin with you having heads and your friend having tails. In the first ten tries, it comes up heads 7 times and tails 3 times. On the 11th try, you still only have a 50-50 chance of getting a heads. So therefore, I would fold in this situation based on the odds for this particular hand.

i dont believe this, i realy think poker can be a game of rushes. for example it seems like i'm always hitting my flush/straight when i had to call a big bet on a draw during my rushes. i know the numbers will disagree with me but... poker still has a big element of luck.

There might be times when you catch well, but the logic that "Ive been catching well, I am going to catch my card here because of it" is absolutely faulty.

The cards have no memory, just because you HAVE been getting your lucky draws, doesnt mean you will KEEP getting them.

Defendant