jhill3535 - I don't think you understand how the BOP promo works. 45 man SNGs never counts in the promotion. However, it would pretty easy for any good player to make the top ten of the BOP high orbit with massive amounts of volume. Most people might be able to put in 100 SNGs for an orbit once in a week....for a high volume player, you probably could put in six or seven - makes it relatively easy to cash in the high orbit.
Looking at this now, I still don't like his chances at all. There are a few players out there that I have no questions that are better than even money on this wager. Eg. All the Supernova Elite SNG players, QuasiFiction and his brother DNA2RNA, and some of the SNG Icon players, etc.
Having said that, I'm probably going to pass on this bet. I would only want to make a large bet in order for this to be really worthwhile. I'm sure you guys are getting the best of this bet. Not many people can increase the volume of tables/hands so quickly and win at a significantly high rate. Also the 45-man SNGs won't be the deciding factor as to weather he wins this bet or not. The tables take quite some time to get started, the variance is high, and it takes a lot longer to finish than a single table tournament. To give you an example, over my hottest stretch over 500 games, I had a ROI slightly over 50%. At the 5 dollar level - that would only make him $1375. This would also take a lot longer to play out as the $5.50/45 players are regular speed SNGs. If he's winning this bet, it's definately not going to be a result of the 45s.
|