[sjay2k]

Tip: AFL (Sep 22) -- Simon Black v Joel Selwood, Brownlow medal votes H2H, bet $1000 at 1.8


In each game of the season (22 rounds), the umpires assign 3, 2 and 1 votes to three players. These votes are counted and the winner is awarded the Brownlow Medal.

Simon Black is a star midfielder for the Brisbane Lions. He won the Medal in 2002 with 25 votes, and surprised everyone last year (including betting markets) with 22 votes. Joel Selwood received 2 votes in his rookie season last year. Moreover he plays for the Geelong Cats, which are a superstar team. The 1st, 2nd and 5th favourite players to win the medal overall all play for Geelong and will limit Selwood's (currently 9th favourite overall) votes.

I have found 8 predictions for this year's medal. Seven predict Black will receive more votes (by margins of between 2 and 12 votes), while one predicts the two will draw.

Simon Black is shortening in all Brownlow-related markets. This is particularly important considering the information-sensitive nature of this market (e.g. people might know the result). A few days ago, Black traded at 42, but traded at 32 today, with a ton of money trying to back him. Selwood has experienced the opposite trend, as there is a substantial amount being offered at odds of 46. In this H2H market, Black opened with all sportsbooks at 1.85, and is down to 1.6 with some (1.5 on Betfair!). TAB still has him at $1.80, which I believe is outstanding value.