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Old 04-30-10, 04:28 AM
JDMcNugent7's Avatar
JDMcNugent7 JDMcNugent7 is offline
Cardinals FTW
 

Join Date: Jul 2005
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JDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep PointsJDMcNugent7 has between 1500 and 1999 Rep Points
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ya, 0 key is broken on the comp. I usually use.

The trying to make a million thing is a joke, but I'd take it. I literally have 0.002% on my sports betting site compared to the $ I have just in stock. So ya, def just doing it for fun, but it's not fun to lose, so might as well try to win.

Ya I know Vegas makes certain lines to sway people to bet on certain sides. Perfect example was Cubs game 2 days ago. The over under was set at 13! That is Insane, and they knew the public would see that # and just pound the under. They probably had the real line around 14.5, but they want at least some $ coming in on the over. The wind was blowing out to center field at almost 30 mph, a damn pop-fly was a homerun, Arizona scored 13 runs alone and Cubs added 5. Guarentee the sportsbooks cleaned up on that bet. I look at all the time to see thoughts on games after I come up with my own, and when they match up with winning bettors that's when I really love them. The good ones knew the over was the play as soon as they saw it set at 13.

I think sports betting is almost exactly like poker too. Juice kills sports, rake kills poker. In both, probably 99% of people lose $, and both have a small percentage of standouts who consistenly profit. BR management is a Huge key in both. Right now I feel like poker has way more skill than sports betting, but probably b/c I know 1000 times more about poker, and I'm sure a case could be made either way pretty easily.

15 unit Bet for Friday is Tampa Bay -1.5 over KC. Could take the -210 line but that is def not as +EV.
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Last edited by JDMcNugent7; 04-30-10 at 04:47 AM.