[Penguinfan]

Good questions there and I'll try to answer all the ones that can be given a finite answer.

Variance in sports betting is nothing like poker, especially since your never really moving up or down in levels, you find an amount you are comfortable with that your bankroll can withstand and you stick with it. Make sure it's enough to cover what you want to win long term. Remember, the best in the business rarely see 60% win rate and the opposite holds true if you are any kind of serious handicapper, meaning you will not drop below 40% for a given period. If you do you need to re-evaluate your handicapping skills and realize it's not bad luck, your making mistakes. We will win as many games as we lost like last night. We'll be on the wrong side and get the win sometimes, it happens. So variance is not that much of an issue, GRINDING it out is the issue.

Much like when I say you just can't beat poker long term because of the run of bad beats and cold cards and you guys argue I am wrong, well honestly I know that, I just haven't figured out how to beat the game yet.

Look at the wagers place by Omahilo last night, getting the Rangers at -1.5 +225 and the Rams at +13.5 -110 and placing say $100 on each bet actually got him a profit of $115 and thats great, not spectacular and it was rough watching the wheels come off for the Rams in the second half, but we did grind out a profit and we move on to the next days card.

Do I bet the same amount every game, well I really try to though I make the occasional blunder and really hammer a game. This honestly shouldn't happen, not becase I don't like some games more than others but rather those are the only games you should be betting. Forcing action will kill you. You see guys on message boards (and at the window in Vegas) saying 2 units on this game and 1 unit on these other three games when in reality they should ONLY be betting the first game and only for their standard amount. Betting more because "I'm up this week" is nonsense as well. At the end of the week I would hate like hell to go 7-5 on plays and lose money becasuse I doubled up on a game or two. This is where variance comes into play and only because you invited it.

Could the opposite happen and you go 5-7 yet make money because you LOVE the Monday night game? Sure, but first off you still have issues with your handicapping system that will ruin you long term, and besides, how often do you see the guy at the blackjack table who keeps doubling up his bets because he has to win one eventually ever break even? We all have a story of hitting a big bet to get us unstuck, but in reality it hurts you much more often than it helps you.

You say you are a small time sports bettor compared to poker, GOOD, obviously you are very good at poker and probably didn't spend an hour going over the MNF game last night. It only makes sense to put the money where your strength lies, for me it's the opposite. I doubt I will see you handicapping a game on your own and throwing 5 grand on it, much like you won't see me enter a poker tournament against pro's with a 5K buy-in, get it?

Sports betting at it's finest is much like winning lower limit poker, it's boring, a grind, and a lot of work, but it can be profitable.