The way I look at sports betting is basically the same as poker. In both you're trying to maximize others mistakes, and minimize your own mistakes.
Anytime a line is created, a person or a system impliments an artificial line to create action to generate equal EV on both sides for the sports book. This way the sports book can just profit from the juice. Whenever this artificial lin is created, a human element is involved which in results means there's a degree of error.
I feel the good sports bettors do is find the line that have the most margin of error. In general for a sports bettor to make money in the long term, they have to make less mistakes than the system that generated the line. Those who do so the best, will as a result profit the most.
This is just like poker where you want to put in your money when you know you're the favorite. And try to minimize your losses on hands that you just can't toss away.
And as in poker, there's always the element of luck that is really out of your hands after you have made your decision. However, it shouldn't alter the thought process if a similar situation occurs in the future.
|