[Penguinfan]

I'll put it like this, and I am sure there are math pro's out there who can back up or dispute my logic, but it all comes down to the fact I hate to go 1-1 on two plays and lose everything I bet.

If you bet $100 on a game and win you now have $200, say you roll that entire $200 into the next game and win, you go 2-0 and you now have $400.

If you played a two-team parlay with that original $100 and won both games you now have $360 (your $100 plus $260 profit considering the average book pays 13-5 on a two-teamer) you are still risking losing the same original $100 and giving the book a $40 free ride.


Let's say you want to go for a big score and play a 3 or 4 teamer (6-1 and 10-1 usually) now going 2-1 or 1-2 is MUCH more common than going 3-0 (or 0-3 for that matter) here's the possible outcomes on $100 wagers:

3-0 on your parlay +$600
2-1 on your parlay -$100
1-2 on your parlay -$100
0-3 on your paraly -$100

of the four possible outcomes only one leave you with any profit whatsoever.

3-0 on straight bets +300
2-1 on straight bets +$90
1-2 on straight bets -110
0-3 on straight bets -$330

Lets toss out the 0-3 posibilities since we are at least decent handicappers and in all honesty 3 games is a VERY short run, but this is just an example.

More importantly I want to look at 3-0 outcomes, you have only made twice as much on the parlay as you would have if you went 3-0 on straight bets. Yes your risk is $200 less, but if we are playing within our bankroll and intend on ever placing another wager then that is really a moot point.

Every time you go 2-1 in the above scenario the parlay sets you back $190 from your bankroll. Now you go 2-1 again and 1-2 the next time, you are 5-4 but -$300 where you should be grinding it out and be +$60 or a $360 swing.

You just can't factor into the equasion how hard it is to go 3-0 on three plays at the same time, and if you can hit 4+ team parlays with any regularity at all then I hope the surgery to remove the horseshoe from your ass isn't too painful.

Seriously, nobody can hit over 65% long term and you will need as least that to win parlays over the long haul, it just isn't worth it.

Next time you are in Vegas call your hotel and tell them you are going to play exclusivly $500 3 team parlays, there will be a limo at the airport waiting for you to make sure you nothing happens to you on the way to the window.