Not that it matters much to me, as I'm in Canada and we (well, at least our Native Reservations) love online casinos, but I think the exact opposite is going to happen: The U.S. will ultimately relent and ALLOW legalized online gambling without the need to go offshore. The casino conglomerates are constantly lobbying politicians to allow them to open up online fronts.
In addition, if allowed to operate on U.S. shores, the gov't would then be able to tax the hell out of the corporation and the players. Sure, right now, you're SUPPOSED to declare income from online gambling but unless you get audited...
If the U.S. allows it, they'll be able to control it. Those big PS/UB/PP payouts? Here you go, we've already taken the liberty of deducting the appropriate taxes for you. Maybe they'll even start doing a double rake: one for the house, one for the taxman. Wouldn't that suck?
The bigger question really is "Does it matter if the U.S. legalizes online gambling?" I don't think it really does. Just because they've given the big thumbs-up, you think that any of the currently operating big boys are going to move out of Gibraltar or the Isle of Man?
I think it's too little too late for the big gaming companies. Bally's, Harrah's, Mandalay Group, etc. They've missed the boat. Not their fault of course. They really had two choices: 1) Give a big 'Fuck You!' to the U.S. gov't and open up online sites offshore. or 2) Sit on their hands and hope the gov't comes around. Obviously if they go the #1 route, that's not going to go over terribly well when it comes time for license renewals so they can't really do that. They're forced to wait. And wait. And wait.
So, this sort of got away from part of your quesiton. How long will it be around? A while yet. Will you (or I, or any of us) be playing poker online for money well into our retirement? Probably not. As with everything, the game will evolve. I'd say it's got a good chunk of time on its lifeclock though. Will it be as profitable? As long as the companies keep advertising like they do, the fish will keep biting.
I've rambled on enough now...
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