The biggest +EV game will be the 150 seats guaranteed, it has to be.
With what you said Zy, the top at the final table on a double shootout get their money back or a bit extra in the $160s i played in. So say we win 1 in 3 first tables, we should at least get our money back 1 in 1.5 times on the final table, if wer calling ourselves sharks, as i hope we do. And go on to win say 1in 5 times.
So 33% of the time we get to the final, and once there, 66% of the time we win the buy in, and 20% of the time we win a seat.
So i reckon 7/100 times we play we will win a seat. And we will win our money back 22% of the time.
So if it takes 12 goes to get a seat, were getign repaid on 3 of them, so thats a 9 buy in outlay. 9 x $160 = $1350. To win a $12k package.
Thats a hell of a +ev game.
The big sunday ones are different. 1 in 15 people go. say were better than half of them. Thats 1 in 7.5 chance of getting a seat. Buy in 8 times to be safe = $4,000 approx, dont know the figures.
Double shootouts are the move IMO.
How about wualifying for the shootout in a $5,50 rebuy. I spent $16.50, and made it first time.
So if u can qualify one out of every 3 of them you play, it may only end upcosting you $200 to win the seat from the start, it depends how much free time you have.
|