Good thread. I like the math, accurate or not.
I know a lot of (good) players swear by the Double Shootouts, so I'm sure there is something to that. I've done very well in the first round of them, almost always finishing 1st or 2nd (which gets you nothing), but I've had TERRIBLE luck in the second rounds, usually out EARLY.
When I was playing for the Bahamas, I liked the $615s the best, but I think that's because I prefer MTT to SNG. I think most people prefer the DSs though.
One more key piece of info: The satellites to these tourneys (all of them) - like the $65+5 ones to the $615 - are some of the softest tourneys I've ever seen. I killed those, and I'm sure you could do the same. Dropping $615 for a 1:20 chance at a big package is a lot easier when it really only cost you $70.
Edit: Hmmmmm.... I just realized... I could be playing in these now and stockpiling some W$ for this year's WCOOP. Duh!