[Talking Poker]

I'm certainly ok with changin the numbers as you see fit, but the format that you wrote up this post is very confusing. Can you just stick to the format that I used, so it's nice and clear? I think I follow what you are suggesting (and I like the UTG post and the $1500 suggestions, but I think your 95% no call is definitely too high), so let's plug your numbers into my format:

1. Lose $50 * 10 = -$500
2. Win $75 * 95 = +$7125 (19/20 can't be right, IMO)
3a. Win $1575 * 1 = +$1575 (you forgot the blinds in your calculation)
3b. Lose $1500 * 4 = -$6000
Grand Total = +$2700 / 100 hands = EV of $27.50.

My problem with that though is still the 95% of the time that you think you won't get called. Let's change that to just 90% (18/20) and see what that does to the numbers:

1. Lose $50 * 10 = -$500
2. Win $75 * 90 = +$6750
3a. Win $1575 * 2 = +$3150
3b. Lose $1500 * 8 = -$12000
Grand Total = -$2100 / 100 hands = EV of -$21.00.

Notice how significantly that changes the results by just saying that you'll get called TWO times out of 20 instead of ONE time out of 20. To support my argument, let's say that you are ONLY called by AA, KK, QQ, and AK. Some people will fold the QQ and AK (we all agree that no one will fold AA/KK), but others will call with JJ, TT, AQs and far worse than that (especially considering they are facing an all in from a guy sitting with < 1/3 of the max buy in who just posted UTG instead of waiting one more hand and then immediately pushed in - I actually think some people will call you here with any pair, and even hands like Ax and KQ), so I think my assumption is reasonable.

The odds of any individual player being dealt one of those four hands is:
220:1 + 220:1 + 220:1 + 46:1 = ~3.5% of the time. So, with 9 players left to act behind you, assuming a full table, you're going to be up against one of those hands 31% of the time! Wow.... is that right? That seems really high to me, but I think my math is correct. Someone call MathBabe.

Even if we throw the AK completely out of the equation and say we'll ONLY be called by AA, KK, and QQ (and that just can't be right) we are going to be facing those hands and get a call (1.36% * 9 = 12.3%) of the time! My original assumption in my first post was 15%, Zy said 5%, and in my final example, I said to use 10%. This makes it sound like all of those numbers are on the conservative side, if anything, making this an even MORE -EV play.

Any responses to this? Zy, especially?