Of course that varies. That's why in terms of EV, we talk about the long run, averages, etc. I was making estimates. YOU and I may fold JJ, but we both there there is some tool out there who is going to call with 88 and ATs.
All you can do is list the ranges of hands that will call, determine how often they will turn up in one of the players behind you hands, and then calculate how often you'll win in each situation.
YES, when ATs calls, you're not going to be a 4:1 dog, but certainly you agree that ATs is better than your random hand, so you are going to be behind... so adding that into the equation HURTS your overall EV - it doesn't help it. I was trying ot be as simple and conservative as possible, and I can not see how this could possibly be a +EV play - Under any circumstances. If someone thinks they can, please, by all means, spell it out for us - mathematically, like I did.
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