Actually, let's focus on this. If I am reading this right, you are telling me that when three of a rank flop at a 10 handed table, 74% of the time, someone will have flopped quads and 26% of the time, no one will be holding the case card. Is that correct?
Because if it is, I'm pretty confident we can disprove that by running a simulation, and that should put an end to this argument right now.
I too think this is worth niggling about, btw - well, not for me so much, as I'm confident that I'm right - but for you and anyone else who is buying your logic, because I too agree that you are going to cost yourself a lot of money in the long run if you don't understand that the current probabilities of your opponents hole cards change as you gain more information.
Actually, here's yet another example. All in preflop on the WPT: AA vs KK. Normally, they would say the KK is about a 4:1 dog, but when someone at the table says "I folded a King," everyone understands that the KK guy now only has one out instead of two, making him a much bigger underdog. This "new information" has changed the probability that he will make the best hand with 5 cards left to come. I realize this isn't the same scenario as what we are talking about, but the logic is the same: We need to use all of the information available to us (all known cards) when determining probabilities (not probabilities for the last hand or the next hand or at a different street of this hand, but the probabilities right now).
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