"Best thing I can tell you is to pick your spots and be aggressive. The idea behind NL tournaments is not to show your hand unless you're sure it's good. Think about this... let's say you are short-stacked. If you get pocket aces against, say pocket Jacks, you're 4.5:1 to win... or about 82%. So you get your money in and go all-in, get called, and are hoping to double up. You do. Very next hand, you get aces again. You push all-in and get called by QQs... again, 82%. You win and double up again. But you're still just an average stack. Next hand you get them AGAIN! You push all-in and get called by a big stack with pocket 22s. Still 82%, but this time you lose. Ouch. Bad-beat, righ? Sure, sure...
But the funny thing is, it's not a bad beat at all. You see, you are basically betting a parlay. You must win the first + second + third. Figuring out the chances of winning all of them is done by multiplying all of the percentages together (82% x 82% x 82%)... it comes up to roughly 55%. So you are only a slight favorite to still be in the tournament after being all-in three times with the best hand in the game."
- AK v. 72o is only about a 6:4 favorite
- If you're on the button and everyone folded to you, the chance of one of the blinds having a pocket pair is only about 1/8
- The chances of QQ flopping a set or overpair is about 66%
- The chances of JJ flopping a set or overpair is about 50%
- The chances of TT flopping a set or overpair is only about 33%
- The chances of any pair flopping a set is about 13%
- The chances of any non-pair holding flopping a pair is 33%
~~~Dutch Boyd Essay
Dude you gotta look at it this way.....bad beats are gonna happen, and sometimes they work out for you....I played one SNG on Pstars that when i went all in i never had the best hand goin in yet i always won. Its math, you will have extreme days like this on both ends of the spectrum.
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