I actually think looking at this from Moon's side is more interesting. I mean, Kopps turn 3 bet shove bluff (and that's all that it was - less than 1% of the time he's getting a worse hand to call, and I think I'm being generous with that) was stupid. People make mistakes, and this was a biggie.
But look at this from Moon's side, sitting on 25 million chips to start the hand, flopping the 3rd nuts and then the board pairing on the turn. Assuming played as is preflop, then check/calling the flop and check raising the turn (all of which I think is fine), you've basically put what, 8 million of your stack in and have around 17 million behind. When Kopp 3 bet shoves there, I'd have to seriously consider laying it down.
I mean, Kopp's line is showing enormous strength. It's a stupid (well, reckless) bluff, as we've already said, so the majority of the time, he's going to have a very big hand. I think FH + better flush makes up a pretty huge part of his range, with semi-bluffing and value-shoving with worse making up much, much less of it.
The correct play may be to call the 12 million or so chip raise, but given everything, right there in that moment, I think I might have folded. I absolutely would have thought about it for a few minutes though - I know that much.
It's hard to say, but given the information we have, I think I would have folded.
|