I've been experimenting with the HU SNGs fairly heavily myself recently. For me, they are the easiest way to get hands in when I'm on the road, and with that huge Full Tilt bonus to clear this month, I played quite a few of them when I was out of town a couple weeks ago. In fact, I'm the person who turned New Guy on to them.
I do think they are soft overall, but you need to avoid the regulars (at least at the higher stakes), or it's just -EV for both of you because of the juice. Of course, I'm way too impatient to pick and choose my opponents, so I just sit at an empty table and hope the regulars avoid me (which they absolutely have been doing lately - it takes me much longer to get a game going now than it used to).
I was actually going to make a post very similar to this one at the end of the month - with my results included - but the quick preview is that I think these can definitely be very profitable... probably not as much as cash games can be for the best players, but WAY more than I think MTT players could ever hope to make in the long run. WAY, WAY MORE.
Still, I think about a 60% win rate is close to the best one can hope for long term. I don't have any math to back that up either, but that's my guess.
Assuming 5% rake (let's take $100+5, for an easy example), if you play 100 and win 60, you've bought in for $10,500 and won (60 * $200 = $12,000) for a total profit of $1500 on your $10,500 investment. That's an ROI of 14%. I think that's maybe what the best players in the world could hope for long term, honestly (again, with no data to back this up), but I think good players should be able to earn 5-10% ROI without too much trouble.
100 is a fairly small sample, of course, but I would say going 58-42 is right where you should hope to be.
If anyone has researched this or read about it in detail somewhere, please share your findings.
And I'll make that more detailed post in a few days or next week sometime.
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