I was going to make a new thread about this, but since we've already got a good discussion going here (or had one going, I should say) and I already said most of what I wanted to say anyway, I'll just post my results (and edit the thread title a bit).
I played 163 $200+10 HU SNGs on Full Tilt this month. I went 98-65.
That's a 60% win rate, which happens to exactly match what we were talking about earlier in this thread (and I hadn't run the numbers until right now - I was just guessing).
Total Buys Ins: $34,230
Total Profit: $4970
ROI: 14.5%
That's straight earnings. I won't add in the $925 in bonus money I cleared while playing these (and some cash games too), but I will add in the rakeback, since I can count on that every month.
Total Rake: $1630
27% Rakeback: $440
Add that to the total profit and we're now looking at $5410, which is a 15.8% ROI.
I know we said a 60% win rate was reasonable, but I personally still don't think that a 16% ROI is sustainable in the long run. I think 163 is an ok sample size (if one of you math guys wants to do a standard deviation or something on that, please do), but I don't think it's nearly big enough to determine an expected ROI.
I do think it's safe to say a 10% ROI would be sustainable for me at this level (including RB and everything). So applying that to $200+10 SNGs, I think I can expect to earn $21 for each one that I play. I'm not sure how many I can play in an hour, but I'm pretty sure it's more than the 5 required to earn $100 an hour.
Not bad.
Feel free to rip this apart and tell me where my math is wrong, etc.
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