Thread: Sports Betting
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Old 11-01-06, 11:54 AM
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Absolutly, in it's purest sense. The only thing worse would be betting on horses or greyhounds.

You are betting on something you have absolutly no control over, none. You can only handicap the past, which is never certain to predict the future.

Having said that I still think it's something that can be beat long term, just like poker, if you continue to make the right decision time after time then eventually the odds will bear you out and you will make money.

Think about it, every sports bet is actually a 50/50 proposition, either the favorite will win by XX number of points or they won't, it really is that simple. I don't doubt people could honestly flip a coin, heads they take the favorite, tails they take the dog, and be close to 50% correct, losing the juice in the long run. If by handicapping the games and doing your homework can you swing that number by 10%? I think so. If you can win 60% over the long run you would not need to work a regular job ever again and live a very nice lifestyle.

I'll give you NHL handicapping as a good example. Do you know how to handicap an NHL game? Do you know what to look for or do you just know Ottawa is better than Pittsburgh? What should you be looking at to actually handicap the game? Losts of things actually that should lead you to an intelligent decision on who to bet on, maybe neither side.

You do all of that work and find that you think Ottawa is worth the -140 they are laying on the road. Then you find out Emery was fighting off a flu bug and lets the Pens score 7 times and you lose the bet.

Did you do anything wrong? No, if you place that same bet several times will you come out ahead, probably.

Too many people are in it for the short term, in which case the game is unbeatable and simply for degenerates like you said. Long term I know I can beat the game.

Think of it like this JD take any average to below average team you want, one who will be a small favorite or most likely an underdog most nights on the moneyline. Bet $50 on them to win, if you lose bet $100 on them the next night, lose again, bet $200 the next night. If they are always a dog your not losing any juice in the deal and are actually making out when they finally win, and they will win. With the ecxeption of really awful teams nodoby loses more than 5 or 6 in a row in baseball, or hockey.

All you need is the bankroll to do it and you can't possibly lose over the long run, sure,your record may be 1-3, but if you bet right you will still be ahead after 4 games and you did no handicapping at all.
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