I think some of the factors you mention really don't matter.
- Regardless of field size, you play your table..there could be 200 guys on day 1A....it will never get down to one table...so field size really makes no difference.
- Chip leader after day 1 coming from the biggest field...I think this point is also irrelevant....the guys that pick up a ton of chips are usually guys that suck out, guys that play big pots, or ppl who just cooler people to no end. In the end...it really doesn't matter who has the chips after day 1. I don't see picking day 1d to try and get the chip lead after day 1 being at all significant.
The things you should take in to consideration when picking your starting date:
- Do you like longer breaks in between days? Or play more often on fewer days?
- A lot of pros may choose day 1a...so they can leave early after grinding all summer if they bust day 1.
- Maybe less Americans on Day 1A as it's the day after Independence day??
- More last minute satellite players on Day 1D?
- More business type players that come in to play Day 1D to play their one and only tournament - who want to stay the least amount of time in Vegas.
In the end, I think most of it comes down to variance and everything is based on table draw. If you're lucky, you get a great table that never breaks on day 1....if you're unlucky...you get a table full of pros and it never breaks.
I would worry more about your own play than factors out of your control.
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