Thread: Ty Ftp
View Single Post
  #6  
Old 01-14-08, 05:23 PM
Wes Wes is offline
Forum Addict
 

Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,879
Blog Entries: 23
Wes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsWes has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default

here is the math behind this

he folds (75%), i win = 116.25
he calls (7.75%), i win = 55.087
he calls, (17.5%) i lose = -124.39

215 + 55.087 - 124.39 = +46.95

basically i just think that he will 4bet with like 9% of his range (roughly 33% of his opens here), but will only call with 2% of his hands that he 4bets with (AK+ KK, which i think is correct considering he used his time bank before calling with AK).


this is just a rough estimate, but i thought with flow and how often i was 3betting this villain, that he would adjust and 4bet light quite often.
Obviously, if it is as big I thought (like example above), it is +EV to shove a bunch of hands.

I think the math is correct here, but obviously i could be wrong.