[Penguinfan]

When Vegas hangs a number on a game everyone assumes they put that line up to get exactly even action on both sides of the bet so they collect the juice and have no real risk exposure, when too much money comes in on one side of a game they move the line to get action on the other side and even things out.

This is not really what happens, Vegas ends up on one side of a game more often than not they need the underdog to cover. When mostly favorites and overs hit Vegas loses money, or at least makes less than they wanted to.

This game, Cincy/TB the line opened at -6 as the virgin line and tons of money came in on the Bengals, instead of the line going to -7 or -7.5 they went the other direction encouraging MORE action on the Bengals. The line is -5 most places and you can find-4 if you look.

You have to ask yourself why people as sharp as Vegas would want the public to load up on one side of a game thus giving them tons of exposure if the Bengals cover.

I've seen it all to often, Vegas is banking on TB covering, plain and simple.

I'd say this is about as high as an 80% play when you see this type of action from the dessert.