[Kurn]

Two picks, plus suicide again this week.

Green Bay +6 @ Jets

Simply, that's too many points against a team that can move the ball. Despite all the hoopla over Rex Ryan's defense, the Jets rank 20th in forcing negative pass plays (sacks & Interceptions) and 24th in opponent's 3rd down conversions.

Indy/Hous OVER 51

I'd like to be able to give the points with the Colts in this revenge game, but their own defense is not even close to great. Despite all the ooh-ing and ahhh-ing over their great pass rushing D-ends, they rank 22nd in opponents negative pass plays and 19th in defensive passer rating, not to mention that they are 28th in opponents' yards per rushing attempt. Sounds like a shootout to me.

SUICIDE: San Diego

OK. This is a gambling play, a great strategic choice if it pans out, a donkey call if it doesn't. Kansas City is at home vs the Bills. 16 left in my pool, 12 of whom (myself included) who can pick the Chiefs. Why not me? Something in my gut wouldn't let me. maybe its just a basic aversion to the chance of elimination by "going with the crowd", but I spent all week looking for a different pick. I settled on the Chargers for 2 reasons. 1) They need this game, Tennessee does not. 2) The eyeball test. San Diego is not ranked #1 in both offense and defense for no reason. I watched every snap last week against the Pats. This is a very good team who gets after the QB better than either the Ravens or the Jets. They stifled Brady and Vince Young ain't Tom Brady. Phillip Rivers > Vince Young. The only worry is that Jeff Fisher > Norv Turner.

One aside - before the season started, I bet a guy at work lunch that when the Vikings came to town, Brett Favre would not be the starting QB. Now I don't care if I lose, as I think the Vikings are weaker with him playing. besides, they play him at least one series to keep the streak alive, even if they really have no intention of him playing the whole game.