Hand 1 - I think Cada flopped a flush draw. Not sure why he doesn't c-bet. Like this board is unlikely to hit Moon and it's not like you're trying to win with 6 high. Like it's nice to pot control and everything, and see cheap turn/rivers and hope to hit...but most of the time you don't. The river bluff raise is really bad. You're playing an amateur who has shown interest....amateurs aren't going to fold to a small raise when they have so many chips.
Hand 2 - Bad. At best you're hoping for like Tens. Everything else crushes you and the few hand you're doing well against is flipping. He's been avoiding marginal spots and his coach is Hellmuth...so it pretty much rules out most small and mid pairs. Like the pot odds were decent, but at the same time, Shulman knows this as well. Shulman is never really going to mess around vs an UTG raise here.
Hand 3 - It's not bad. Given the situation....I wouldn't mind flipping in this spot. It's the ME....of all tournaments in the world, this is one where first place overlay is so much greater than any others. I wouldn't mind gambling vs the toughest opponent, because you can knock him down and get back into it at the same time...or you're out. The flat payout structure too...so need to go big or go home. The only real consideration is how much of Ivey's range is a pair and how much of it is two overs. If the range is right....I think flipping with an overlay (blinds+antes) and a % edge with the hand is correct.
I think Kurn's analysis on this hand misses the point. It wasn't 2 to 1 on the call. Ivey had to call 4.35 million to win 7.7 M. That's 1.77 to 1. He needs to win this 36.1% of the time for it to be a correct call. The math is going to be close vs Cada's range. Ivey opens from Mid position 7 handed. Assuming Cada assigns Ivey with a "normal range", Cada's range has to be narrower...since he is expecting to get called vs Ivey's range.
So when Ivey looks at it, it eliminates a lot of weak aces from Cada's range, since 3-bet shoving A-rag is going to get crushed by Ivey's range. So Cada is gonna shove pairs, high aces, and high paint cards. Assuming Cada's shoving range is 22+, A9+, KQ - through poker stove, A8o has 34.8% equity. So he doesn't have the correct odds to call.
In addition to all the math, the key point to address is that Ivey is calling and likely to lose. Even if it is mathematically correct to call, the chip Ivey loses in this all in will hurt him significantly. If he folds, the chips he saves hold significant value.
So for Ivey to call, he really has to decide how wide is Cada's range..what the math is, how winning/losing pot affects his chances of winning. In the end Ivey couldn't overcome the pot odds to fold....but like he said...he was looking for a way to fold....and it wouldn't be terrible to have done so.
Hand 4 - It's ok. Not the best spot for him...it really depends how often you think Shulman is calling...and what his calling range would be. If Shulman folds hands like 44-99 then it's a decent spot....but I'm not sure Jeff would in this spot. I really don't think Shulman has been out of line but his comments on the A8 vs 44 hand....maybe makes Shulman more likely to fold. It's probably close between folding and shoving.
Hand 5 - I don't like this hand at all. First raising 2.5x blind vs blind from sb....it's not a good play against a good player in the bb with a lot of chips. I don't know what the blind vs blind confrontation has been like before...but in general, you don't want to blow the pot up with a small pair oop.
In any case, once he get's raised...he put himself into an awkward spot. With 39 BB's and 22 blind vs blind....I think if you believe you're the best player left...you fold. Especially with Darvin there. I guess it's unexploitable to shove in this spot...so I can't blame you for doing so....but generally don't like flipping at best situations with 39bb's in your stack.
I'm sure Cada played well to get to the final table, but he did a lot of things in the final table that I consider to be bad. Especially heads up. I don't understand why he keeps blowing up the pots vs an aggro spewy player. Cada is known as a heads up specialist...but seriously played it so poorly.
Cada should have been like a 3 or 4 to 1 favorite against Moon heads up....the way he played it, he was probably a dog.
I'm sure Cada is a good player, but there's a lot he can learn...but that's what you can say about every player.
As for Moon, I don't understand why ppl are all over him. Like yes he played poorly. Anyone with poker sense knows it, but he's never been advertised as a great player. He's a fish, everyone knows it, he admits it himself...why is everyone knocking him. Shouldn't we be keeping the fish happy in this game. He did somethings that were really bad...but at the same time other pros did the same thing.
Eg. His AQ vs Steve's QQ hand...was a super overshove that will only get called when he's dominated...well Buchman did the exact same thing with AQ vs AK.
Watching the final table, the only players that didn't really make any clear mistake was Sauot, Ivey, and some of the guys that got knocked out early.
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