JD's 1 play a day

[JDMcNugent7]

Here you will find my biggest play of the day and you can just follow along and probably lose, or fade all my bets and win all $. Actually I plan on making right around a million on this so we'll see how it goes. Not going for the easy win plays where you lay $4OO to win $1OO, just my best value plays of the day.

[Windbreaker]

Do you know that you're using the letter O for the number 0?

In any case, I think sports betting is like poker....most ppl thinks that they're better than what they are. The sports betting sites make a lot of money off the juice and have done a lot to set the lines "correct". Unless you have a database set up like Haralobos Volgaris I don't think it's best to treat sports betting like the lottery...and just have fun with it.

You really need a huge bankroll/bet large and hit in order to really hit a goal of a million.

[JDMcNugent7]

ya, 0 key is broken on the comp. I usually use.

The trying to make a million thing is a joke, but I'd take it. I literally have 0.002% on my sports betting site compared to the $ I have just in stock. So ya, def just doing it for fun, but it's not fun to lose, so might as well try to win.

Ya I know Vegas makes certain lines to sway people to bet on certain sides. Perfect example was Cubs game 2 days ago. The over under was set at 13! That is Insane, and they knew the public would see that # and just pound the under. They probably had the real line around 14.5, but they want at least some $ coming in on the over. The wind was blowing out to center field at almost 30 mph, a damn pop-fly was a homerun, Arizona scored 13 runs alone and Cubs added 5. Guarentee the sportsbooks cleaned up on that bet. I look at all the time to see thoughts on games after I come up with my own, and when they match up with winning bettors that's when I really love them. The good ones knew the over was the play as soon as they saw it set at 13.

I think sports betting is almost exactly like poker too. Juice kills sports, rake kills poker. In both, probably 99% of people lose $, and both have a small percentage of standouts who consistenly profit. BR management is a Huge key in both. Right now I feel like poker has way more skill than sports betting, but probably b/c I know 1000 times more about poker, and I'm sure a case could be made either way pretty easily.

15 unit Bet for Friday is Tampa Bay -1.5 over KC. Could take the -210 line but that is def not as +EV.

[JDMcNugent7]

good start: -15 units. Like the bet still just didnt work out

[JDMcNugent7]

good thing I was mad I lost and put way more on Dodgers -1.5 to make it back, best play might be TB -1.5 again but I'm waiting for the line to go down.

[sjay2k]

I'll be happy to book your bets if you want a bonus 2c on every line you're getting from your sportsbook (Bodog?)