Monday Night Football against the number

[Penguinfan]

Again the books are over reacting to what has happened this season and hung a rediculous number on this game. 14 points is just WAYYYYYY too many.

Win or lose this bet consider 14 points +EV for sure.

Get it early today before the number goes to 13.5 or lower.


St. Louis +14

[Talking Poker]

Well Mr. Sports Betting - you were 3-0 with your locks yesterday. Let's see how long you can ride this streak.

I realize 14 points is a LOT, but I don't love this game quite as much as you do. If you MADE me bet on it, I'd take the points, but I'm planning on avoiding it all together.

(where I bet) has the line at 13.5, btw.

Actually, the more I think about it........................ I know Indy is going to want to prove something with their offense tonight, and I know their defense has been awesome, but this probably isn't going to be a 2 TD game.

I never thought about looking at sports betting like poker - long term. Taking the Rams here probably is +EV, huh?

[Penguinfan]

Well, if you really want the long drawn out boring logic behind it, here's a look into the world of sports handicapping. Much like you know more about cards, odds, theory, etc... of poker there is more to know than most people imagine about betting on sports.


Indy is not putting up points like theie teams in the past couple of seasons, it's actaully their defense that has kept them in games. Their defense is doing it with an incredible pass rush. There is not a team in the league that develops plays as quick as St. Louis, that quick slant over the middle will neutralize the pass rush. If you think St. Louis won't throw the ball 50 times if they have to your not paying attention.


The line, like you pointed out, is already dropping. I don't think this is a false move, I think the smart money is pouring in on the Rams for this game and the books are reacting to that. It probably won't move again as the next significant move would be to 10 as this game will not have many FG's and it's not moving to 10.

For you trend players:

St. Louis is 3-1 ATS vs Indy in the last 4

Indy is 1-3 ATS at home in their last four tries.


St. Louis is actually out-passing the high flying Indy offense by almost 80 yards a game.

People love the favorite and the over on Monday night, the book factor this in when setting the line, believe me.

Indy probably wins and it may take a backdoor cover to win this bet, but the Rams are the right play even at 13.5

[Talking Poker]

I think you've talked me into placing a wager...

BTW - I like these sports betting insights of yours. I still can't believe that I never figured out that "Lock of the Week" scam you described on my own (starting with 1000 mailers, and sending out 500 picking one team and 500 picking the other team, then 250/250 to the winners the next week and so on)...

[Penguinfan]

Yea, there's another board I posted Indy on, so be careful.

[PShabi]

I like Indy at -13.5.