You are a bad player. Trust me on this.

[Talking Poker]

Ok, maybe you're not "bad," but you're not as good as you think you are.

Have you ever noticed how virtually all poker players think they are good poker players? Have you ever noticed how players that you are 100% sure are BAD players - big time LOSING players - honestly believe they are good? If they aren't in complete denial about their losses (losing players usually don't keep records), they chalk their losing up to bad luck. Why is this?

I have a theory. I think it's easier to spot a player that is worse than you than it is to spot a player who is better than you. It's easy to see people make -EV moves that you understand, but it's difficult to recognize good moves that you don't yet comprehend. Because of this phenomenon, I think Joe Poker Player can easily look around and spot a bunch of bad players, so he therefore assumes he must be a good player. Well, I've got news for him: He's not.

I think this applies to everyone. Take me, for example. One year ago, I thought I was a pretty good poker player, and I was (I have the records to prove it). But I can say with certainty that I am a better player now. It would be silly for me to think I won't continue to get better in the future, so I'm sure I still have a lot of room to grow, even though I don't necessarily see it right now. Over time, we start to understand more subtle plays and plug the minor leaks in our games. I've done quite a bit of this over the past year, and I hope I continue to do so in the future.

Anyone can spot a complete fish. For a long time now, I've been able to sit down at a poker table and very quickly spot the hotshot who think's he is God's gift to poker, but in reality is far from it. Maybe his play isn't the worst I have ever seen, but it's still BAD. He still make fundamental mistakes. I'm sure this guy is a losing player. We all know the type. Sometimes it's quite comical.... I especially like when the hotshot feels the need to rip into the players who are worse than him - the ones who are making massive -EV plays. I admit, I've let my frustration get the best of me in the past, but this is a TERRIBLE idea. Talk about -EV! You WANT to play with the fish. Don't scare them off, and don't educate them. Just sit there and ride it out and you'll get paid off in the long run. If you must blow off some steam, do what I do - go off on the guy who is ripping into your fish.

Anyway, back to what I was saying...... In addition to spotting all the losing players, I am now easily able to spot winning players who aren't as good as I am - guys with minor leaks in their game. They are solid players and I'm sure they can grind out winning sessions, but they still have room to improve. I used to be one of these guys.

The point is, I am sure there are people who play with me who see leaks in my game that I don't see myself (yet). I'm a good poker player, but I'm not the best. Far from it, in fact. With experience, I hope to continue to improve my game. Someday, I want to be able to sit down at almost any poker table and KNOW that I am the best player there. But in the mean time, I'm happy to admit that I still have room to grow.

I think poker players would be doing themselves a favor if they would realize (admit) one simple thing: You're not as good as you think you are.

[GeoffM]

So basically, if you can spot a gay person, it doesn't make you any less gay ?

[Penguinfan]

I remember an interviews during the 03 WSOP with Dutch Boyd when he said "poker is like sex, everyone thinks their the best but in reality they really don't know what they are doing". Seems true enough.

As for myself, I have readily admitted I am a break even to losing player still. I have moments where I just think I am the unluckiest player alive, I remember a stretch or 14 straight SNG's where I busted out holding the best hand when the chips went in the pot.

Just yesterday in a rebuy game I had around 6K in chips after the first hour (buy in, immediate rebuy, add on all 1000, 1000, 1500) and in about 20 hands I had AK beaten by AQ, got KK twice and rand head first into pocket A's both times. I think everyone from Joe Dumbass to Doyle himself busts out of that game given those hands, thats just plain bad luck, but I understand it happens.

My game has certainly improved in the aspect that I don't bust out with hands that I used to and I am able to lay down hands like AJ pre-flop if the situation dictates, that may not sound like much, but it's a big step for alot of players.

I said all that to say this, I still think bad luck plays a big factor in my game. I know you just said that bad players blame bad luck, and maybe your right, maybe I am still a bad player and have a long way to go, but if the coin landed on heads as often as it did tales they would be writing articles about me in Card Player magazine.

[PShabi]

I had a guy at my table yesterday with a VP$IP of about 60% and a PFR% of 28 saying, "unreal what people will call a raise with."

[PShabi]

I think this theory goes with life in general. I've had a "4 year rule" for some time now.

Goes like this:

When I was 17, I thought I knew everything.

At 21, I realized I didn't know shit at 17.

Then you look back and you're 25, and you realize how stupid you were at 21.

In a couple years, I'll look back at 25 and realize I didn't know a damn thing about life.

And on it goes.

[GeoffM]

You know, I'm finding it very eerie that nobody has had any insight into my comment yet .

Anyhow, it is because of the fish that I decided to start bonus-whoring. It is actually proper to play loose when there are more fish at the table, but I have never been able to get myself into that type of mindset. For example, last night I was playing that MTT, and I was at the table with the eventual chip leader the entire time. While I was seeing close to 25% of the flops, I believe he was seeing upwards of 80%. This guy was winning with some of the crappiest cards I have ever seen. Seeing people like this have so much success has really turned me off of the 10-handed tables in the past, and it may very well put me back at 6-max where I think I had most of my success, even if only on a short-term basis.

With online poker comes online luck, simple as that. You have AA UTG and push a significant raise, and have 6-7 fish behind you, you will be a dog if these goofs decide to call. IMO luck is the single biggest factor in online poker, as reads are hard. How do you read a guy who could be whacking off to a porno and playing poker at the same time? You can't physically see him sitting at his monitor so how do you read facials and other things? Maybe he is a good poker player who just happened to get excited at the same time he was dealt 7-2o .

[Talking Poker]

You don't need "reads" to be a winning player. Sure, they help you make those close call decisions in live games, but not so much online. Online, betting patterns are your tells.

You need to get out of the "it's just luck" mindset. Yes, that one time you have AA and get 6 callers you might not win. But deal that same scenario out 1000 times, and you will be WELL AHEAD after all the hands play out.

When I play limit cash game poker, my game becomes very mechanical. Sure, I taylor it a bit based on the table condition and my opponents, but against the average guy, my play doesn't change much based on tells, hunches, whatever. I simply keep trying to make +EV moves, and in the long run, I get paid off.

Poker is about making the correct long term decisions and making your opponents make mistakes. Make less mistakes than your opponents do, and you'll be a winning player. It's as simple as that.

Long term, long term, long term.

[Penguinfan]

I just don't know about that. Especally when it comes to tournaments that aren't much more than blind races.

Look at the $200+15 at RNG Stars, one you made the final table almost nobody has more than 12-14 BB's and ante's. How much skill could one possibly posess to outplay the other 8 players in that situation?

That is just an all-in fest and luckiest guy wins. Certainly it takes skill to get that far, but you need more luck than the other guys as well, or at the very least less bad luck.

When you see people playing absolute rags for tons of chips and catching miracle cards you just can't sell me on the fact that luck doesn't control the majority of outcomes.

I am not even saying it is on-line poker, it's just the game in general, some people are luckier than others.

[Penguinfan]

Hand #7878796-79 at Mon2pmB-010 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 22/Aug/05 15:27:44

wardo71 is at seat 0 with 4035.
ontopher is at seat 1 with 6980.
ocscienceguy is at seat 2 with 0 (sitting out).
lado76 is at seat 3 with 575.
chengong is at seat 4 with 3065.
Topcntrlr is at seat 5 with 4885.
Iron_City is at seat 6 with 2575.
penguinfan is at seat 8 with 2685.
PopsH515 is at seat 9 with 3530.
The button is at seat 4.

Topcntrlr posts the small blind of 75.
Iron_City posts the big blind of 150.

wardo71: -- --
ontopher: -- --
lado76: -- --
chengong: -- --
Topcntrlr: -- --
Iron_City: -- --
penguinfan: Kd Ad
PopsH515: -- --

Pre-flop:

penguinfan raises to 525. PopsH515 folds. wardo71
folds. ontopher folds. lado76 calls. chengong
folds. Topcntrlr folds. Iron_City folds.

Flop (board: 9h 2h 5c):

penguinfan bets 150. lado76 goes all-in for 50.
penguinfan is returned 100 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

lado76 shows Ts Ah.
penguinfan shows Kd Ad.


Turn (board: 9h 2h 5c Td):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 9h 2h 5c Td 4c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

lado76 has Ts Ah 9h 5c Td: a pair of tens.
penguinfan has Kd Ad 9h 5c Td: ace high.


Hand #7878796-79 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
lado76 wins 1375 with a pair of tens.
----------------------------------------------------------------



For those wondering about the small bet at the flop, it's because it was me and one other person and he only had 50 chips left.

A beautiful 3-outer, AND THE COIN LANDS ON TAILS AGIAN!!!!

Not about luck my ass.

[GeoffM]

I agree whole-heartedly with what PenguinFan said regarding the tournaments.

I'll tell you guys right now, that tournament I was in last night, if I sat down with these guys and played a limit tourney with say set blinds of $0.25/0.50 or whatever and we all sat down with $100, then I guarantee I am paying $100 rake and taking the other $900 off the table. The fact all the other donkeys at the table were just giving each other their chips led to my downfall, because while I did have a great hand when I busted (I held A357, flop came 46K), I was screwed. The donkey I referred to above that ended up being chip leader had A6710, and was calling me with a pair of sixes. Looking at my hand, I had the huge wrap with a very good low draw that would have held up had any low card hit. Insteadh, the jackass spikes a 10 on the turn and a 9 comes on the river and he takes a huge pot while I almost punch my computer. You guys, I see you a lot of times posting bad beats when you had 10-12 outs, but unless I've gone insane, I knew in this hand I needed any 8, 7, 5, 3, 2 for the scoop and any A would have given me at least half. Not including this bastards hand, I had 17 outs AFTER the flop at the scoop and 20 outs to at least half the pot. This is after the flop. What would that make me, about a 70% favorite to hit one of these on either the turn or river?

I know online poker is more than just luck, but sometimes those MASSIVE draws just don't hit. The only reason I get pissed is because it seems all-too-often lately some guy will be a huge dog to me and low-and-behold, he somehow catches the "Miracle on 34th Street" and takes the pot. I don't mean to sound like Helmuth when I say "If there was no luck in poker I'd win every tourney", because noone is good enough to win every tourney, but I just think that in general a lot of times odds don't necessarily hold up. I can't remember how many times in the last 2 weeks my 20+ outers have not hit (and yes, in O8 it is very common to have 20+ outers). I can guarantee however that they haven't been hitting at the 70% or whatever clip that they should be.

Mind you, I guess I shouldn't bitch too much, since I am in the green (or black, or whatever), but sometimes I just start to think what might have been had this or that not happened.

[johnp158]

If you really think this, why play? Yes, each single tournament involves a lot of luck, and obviously cash games involve luck as well, but you can't really believe that it's JUST luck. You're really willing to keep throwing money into tournaments while you honestly believe that it's just a crapshoot? Like TP is saying, you've gotta operate under the idea that it's about long-term results, and getting your money in with the best hand. For instance, when Geoff talks about getting AA and getting 6 callers, yes, you're a dog to win the pot, but you only need to be 15% to win to make money! If you're 40% to win, you should be making huge amounts of money with aces. I hate when people make commments like "uh oh, AA again. How much am I going to lose here?" That thinking is just so wrong.

Maybe it's easy for me to say this because I've been on a pretty good run playing NL cash games, I don't know. Even with tournaments, which most people agree are not a great way to make steady money, it's like Harrington says: Force your opponents to make the wrong decisions, without the proper odds. If you're doing this, you should be fine. I haven't played nearly enough tournaments to know what it's like to go on huge losing runs, but obviously there are people out there who are doing something right.

I hope I'm not coming across too strong here. I know that you guys don't bitch all the time, but this stuff does seem to be bothering you. You (me too) just have to remember that it's about making the best decisions over and over, and exploiting your big edges whenever you can.

[Aequitas58]

Lol.

[junYUN]

yeah ive almost completely stopped playing online poker.. its a complete crapshoot sometimes. i'm not blaming luck completely, but there are TONS of idiot players (not that im the best -- but i can hold my own at a table) and bad beats are as common as HPV.

i feel like live games are less "crazy".. whether that means anything i have no idea.. but a lot of the times i feel online poker is a little screwy.

[Talking Poker]

You guys can't seriously tell me you would rather play at a table full of players who are better than you so you can be on the dork side of bad beats, than play with a table full of morons, take your beats in stride, but make a fortunae in the long run, can you? I mean, you can't seriously be telling me that.

There are "TONS of idiot players" online, and you are using this as a reason to NOT play online??? Has this place turned into Bizarro-Forum???

[junYUN]

well its not that... its just that there are as many fish at the casinos i hit up (to scale obviously... theres not 60k of them wandering around).. and it seems my cards hold up better. it's kinda like how in bull durham he says "if you think this is whats making you run good, then it is."

online poker just seems to fuck up the odds!

ODDS FUCKER UPPERS

[Penguinfan]

No, this is not the problem, the problem is, and I am 100% certain this is the case:

THERE IS NO LONG TERM IN ON-LINE POKER!

There I have said it, the truth is out!

There is only a never ending series of short runs in on-line poker. Every session/tournament is independant of itself and you can make the right decision time after time and still come out on the losing end of things. This is why nobody can say how many hands the long run is, because it doesn't exist.

Best case scenario, keep making the right decisions and hope it works out for you.

[johnp158]

Jebus!

Has anybody here ever taken any psychology or stats classes? Of course they're independent events, whose outcome has no bearing on the next event. But when you take a large collection of independent events, STATISTICS RULE. The cards that come are random, which doesn't mean that it will always look random. If you see a KKK flop, you might say, "Well how could that be random?" But those patterns are bound to occur, and WILL inevitably occur at times, if it is in fact random.

In a similar vein, you will notice every time that your aces get cracked, or somebody draws out on you when you're dominated. Of course it happens, and of course you notice it. We call that the confirmation bias, in which you seek out information that confirms your beliefs. How often does it really stick out when you raise PF with AA or KK, flop comes unders, you bet, the guy folds, and you win a small pot? Pretty ordinary, so it doesn't stick out.

So I maybe strayed from the point, but this is the gist: A series of "short runs" = "the long run." So I don't understand the logic here.In a series of independent events, when things happen that are statistically improbable, events will INEVITABLY regress to the mean, or to the most likely outcome. If you really look at long-term results with an objective eye, you'll see that things happen as probability dictates.

Cheers,
JP

[jillaj]

This is starting to get comical. I guess the people that continually make money online are just lucky. Getting better and improving your game must be a waste of time. By the sound of it from a few of you wearing the same "lucky" shirt all the time is better than being a sound player.

[Zybomb]

The main difference I think in online play is this.

It is much easier to press "Call" and call bets that you shouldnt then actually put in money. It just doesnt feel as real.

Because of this there are more bad beats, (and also more ways to make more money when you hit, or force someone to pay the wrong odds to draw...like they say tho, you remember all the times your AA or whatever gets outdrawn, but dont remember very many if any of the times it holds up as it should)

The only problem with this type of play is it takes away/limits many weapons from your arsonal (steal raises, continuation bets, probe bets just to name a few) and forces you more to extract the most when you think you have the best hand and the least when you dont -- this could lead to losing sessions when you simply dont catch cards to compete, or your good PF hands (AQ AK etc) simply miss on the flop.

Overall though you shouldnt want people to play like idiots -- it just sucks when they get lucky.

[Talking Poker]

Typo, right?

The other reason I think online players are often worse than B&M players is because they are less embarrassed. A brand new player who has never played before may be too intimidated to walk into a poker room and lose all their money while trying to learn the game, for fear of looking stupid. But in the faceless world that is the internet, it's easy.

Add in how many more hands per hour you can get in online, especially if you multi-table, and then throw in the significantly reduced rake and you can't go wrong.

I could play in a live game 7 days a week here, and once in a while I do - for both the social aspect of it and to work on reading players and looking for tells - but for the most part, it's much more profitable for me to play online.

[Zybomb]

Yes definately typo -- you should

[junYUN]

i disagree. i think you get a lot of people that go to casinos for the "fun" aspect.. and there are (just like pshabi said) tons of no-fold-em-hold-em games that i play in all the time. people dont notice that i fold a lot and/or dont notice when i raise a pot.. they're mostly paying attention to their hole cards + their cocktail + the skinny blonde across the way.

i just feel less "screwed" when i play live. whether or not its all completely random and i just happen to be getting better sessions live.. but it just seems less "screwy" to me.. dont hate!

[PShabi]

I think the whippets are going to your head, I really do.

I don't know where you play live games but the live limit hold'em down here is 5-6 players seeing a capped flop a good portion of the time. When I used to go, I'd be the only one folding preflop. Yes, nine to the flop.

I still made money.

[bdawg31]

LOL

[ChipFish]

As Previously discussed TP....

Can you pick the player in this thread who is LOSING currently?
Some of this is just plain silly.