Tom Dwan - so sick...

[Zybomb]

Im ignoring the stakes here obviously (if i was in this game i would be comfortable stacking off, if i wasn't i wouldn't play) but regardless of the 3x pot bet or 3/4 pot bet, we're in the same situation here no? You figure Dwan could have 64... [ normally you'd fold the turn with 64 but you could certainly (profitably) call if your plan was to also bluff a club river (and you figure your success rate to be decent)], but also missed clubs a ton and PROBABLY doesn't have too many hands outside of that range that make this bet.

Then it comes down to recent action, has he overbet a made draw like this before? has he overbet in general like this on the river before? with what kind of hands? in what situations? with what types of river cards? has he been called down? have i made laydowns to big river bets? big laydowns? are there any mind games going on between us set up from recent events? could this be some kind of level with a 2 pair hand thinking i'll call down with one pair bc its blufflike?

If the plan was to check to let clubs bluff and call, now that the bet is much larger than anticipated it shouldn't change things -- i mean yea you'll have to think about it longer, but if anything this bet would probably lessen his range of hands than had he bet the river normally (to pretty much exclusively two clubs or 64). For the most part if villains range is nuts/bluff, I call more often than not

But I had the luxury of seeing Dwan's cards so who knows