Interesting freeroll at Party last night

[Talking Poker]

Easy, fellas.

I like ridiculous analogies (I make them all the time), and I like this one. The problem is though, it doesn't hold true to last night's situation. You're forgetting one key piece, which would be something like:

"If you decide to play the AA and WIN, you are guaranteed the $50 but also have a significantly (that's subjective, of course) higher chance of winning more money, as much as $1000."

So, here are the possible outcomes:

1. Stand Around the Corner and get $50. Still have a shot at more money, but it's much less likely than if you play the AA.
2. Play AA and lose, get kicked in the nuts.
3. Play AA and win, get $50 and a chance at up to $1000.

Each outcome is mutually exclusive, but when deciding between #2 and #3, you need to keep in mind that as soon as you decide to play the AA, #3 is much more likely than #2 - in this case, it was about 4.5:1, but it could have been even higher if he had AK...