micro-stakes no-limit strategy for inexperienced players

[Talking Poker]

I'm +Repping this. This should put you well ahead of me on the Repometer.

Seriously though, this has to be the single worst one of eejit's get rich quick ideas yet. I would LOVE to see someone actually try this (at any limit - do it at the microlimits for all I care) to see just how -EV this really is. Because I'm assuming it's VERY -EV.

Just for fun, let's make up some numbers. Let's first assume that with ANY ACTION in front of him, eejit will fold his $50 BB. We could make the numbers more complex if we wanted to, but this is the simplest way to start.

Here are my guesses:
1. 10% of the time, there will be action in front of him and he'll fold or check, but end up losing his $50 one way or another (this number will depend mostly on eejit's average position at the table, but I think it's safely conservative).
2. 85% of the time he'll push in and win the blinds ($75).
3. 5% of the time, he'll get a call (that's only 1 in 20, which I think is probably on the low side, but let's go with it). Of this 5% of the time, let's say eejit wins 20% (1% total) of the hands and loses 80% (4% total), winning $5075 and losing $5000 respectively (we'll assume it's not a blind or a short stack who calls, for simplicity).

I actually think those numbers are semi-realistic, but if anything, they are probably on the conservative (good for eejit) side. If all of that is true, that means that after 100 hands, we would have the following results:

1. Lose $50 * 10 = -$500
2. Win $75 * 85 = +$6375
3a. Win $5075 * 1 = $5075
3b. Lose $5000 * 4 = -$20,000
Grand Total = -$9050 / 100 hands = EV of -$90.50.

So, using eejit's numbers and doing this 200 times per night, he would "win" 200 * -90.50 = -$18,100 per night. Minus ($3*86=) $258 in rake = a grand total of -$18,358 per night.

Best... idea.... EVER.