sports betting

[sjay2k]

Sports betting can be very profitable. The trick is
a) working out when a line is wrong
b) getting the best odds


Yes, Mardy Fish is a big dog against Nadal. But Nadal is not invincible; he dropped a set in his previous match against an unspectacular opponent. Nadal is overrated right now, I think Federer is more likely to win the US open. Also, Mardy Fish is a wildly inconsistent player, on home court, who just crushed Gael Monfils in straight sets.

Also, you say you can get -1200 on Nadal in this match. Please use decimal instead of silly American odds (all the pluses and minuses make analyses confusing).

-1200 = 1 + 1/12 = 1.083

However, you can back Nadal on Betfair for 1.14 (less commission, which for you would be the maximum amount of 5%). So you'd be getting 1.133.

Thus if you bet on Betfair instead of Bodog, you would win an extra $298 (more than 50% more value). I know it's difficult for Americans to get accounts on Betfair, but if you're going to bet sports, you're just getting screwed anywhere else.