Donk Bet Raising Success Rate...

[Talking Poker]

de-coder: For my main database, there are a lot of limit hands in there from when I used to play limit. Is there a way to filter those out and only look at the NL hands?

My observed db is entirely NL, so I'm checking that one first.

[Talking Poker]

OK, this is taking FOREVER on my computer. Guess I'll have to play some Mahjong while I wait.

OK... From my 2007 Observed Hands database (630k hands) - 99%+ is 1/2 NL through 5/10 NL, and it's all 6 max:

3275 times this situation occured.
1561 times the raise took down the pot right there.

So, that's almost 48% of the time. This number is for higher limits on average than the one from de-coder's database, so I'm not at all surprised to see this play being more successful (many bad players can't fold draws, even when they should). The 6 max vs Full ring could also contribute to the difference.

FYI - it took me 10 minutes and 45 seconds to get the first number and almost 6 minutes to get the second.

I'll run this against my db next, but without a way to filter off the old limit hands, I'm afraid my results will be skewed lower than they really are.

Hmmm... I'm having some issues with my player ID (I get multiple results for Rogue23 and when I use Troll Pie's player ID (that's the one I want to use), I'm being told this situation came up 0 times, which I know is a lie. Maybe it's because of the way "aliases" are set up in PT? I'm not sure.

de-coder - Little help?

[Robbr25]

NOTE: I think this happens more than below. And I am not sure if limit is included. I will do more analysis later.

Based on these queries here are my numbers:
Times occurred: 148
Times villain folded after the raise of his/her donk bet: 33

Now I wanted to see how many of the 148 I actually won the hand, that number is 85.

So based on this it looks like I win the hand when I raise those situations more than I lose. It just may take the turn and the river before I take the hand down.

[Wes]

So you are telling me if you auto raise less than the pot sized bet it is automatically going to be a +EV situation since hey over your 3500 sample it worked out 48% of the time. Yay thanks! Now if you could lay out some other black and white rules I might win at poker!

[Talking Poker]

Actually, no... I believe what I said was this:

Note no mentoin of a 3500 hand sample... just some speculation about a certain situation in poker we were intelligently discussing.

But sure, if you want another black and white rule (feel free to write this down): "AA is never behind preflop, so folding this hand preflop is -EV."

But thanks for your wonderful contribution to this thread anyway. Don't you have anywhere else on the internet to be?

[Wes]

Next can we figure out how often someone calls a river check/raise? That way I can figure out the % of the time I should be bluffing with a river check/raise.

[Talking Poker]

Why are you being retarded?

Oh, right.

[de-coder]

I'm pretty sure aliases would be the problem there. I don't have any aliases so I don't know how they work. I assume it's something like this:

rogue23 has player_id 5
troll pie has player_id 10

there's a alias_id field in the player table that I would assume would have the number 10 in it for rogue23's record. Then it looks like all the hands are imported under player_id 5.

I suggest unaliasing yourself and then running the queries, but that's going to take a while too. Unless I mess around with this alias thing to figure it out that's all I've got.

[melioris]

TP- in your analysis how many times did you fold to a donk bet and how many times did you raise?

Good work guys, I find this thread interesting and useful.

[Talking Poker]

Really? You don't have any annoying comments to make about black and white poker rules that no one is suggesting? Good, I'm glad someone finds this useful. I know I do.

As for your question, I haven't even been able to narrow this down to the hand where I was the PFRer yet, lewt alone dig deeper to see what percent of the time I'm raising the donk bet vs. folding. I definitely don't do it 100% of the time though - besides some of the reasons I listed above somewhere (like table images, flop texture, donk's skill level and so on), I think the donk's stack is a big consideration. The play works better with deep stacks.

I'd like to see the results specific to my player ID, but I'm not sure how, since I keep getting 0 for the results when I run this against the ID that I think is correct... And then there are the limit hands in my personal db that skew things too. My observed numbers are solid though.

[helmuths henchman]

Here is a question, how often do you "donk bet?" Is it a reccomended play?

[Talking Poker]

I usually donk bet strong - flopped set, for example - and/or when I can squeeze a guy behind me. If the PFR is the one in between me and another cold caller, I definitely wouldn't donk bet (because I don't want him to raise and drive the other player out), but if the preflop raiser was the last to act, that's a good spot to squeeze the guy in the middle if you have a big hand. So, it really depends.

Generally though, I don't donk bet much. Heads Up, I'd prefer to check raise or check/call, depending how strong my hand is (or check/fold, of course). But on some flops against the right type of opponent, the donk bet will work too.

Sorry if this isn't a good explanation, but it's very situation dependent.

[Robbr25]

I have tried donk betting when strong, but so far it backfires (they fold).
So I don't know how successful it can be for me based on my playing style. I think it is very dependent on your opponent.

[de-coder]

The good news is - yes there is a way - you can here the but coming though right? But - the level has an integer code ID. I know that 1 = $50 NL, full ring - as for the the rest (I have a few others I could track down, but certainly not all of them). If you have any pull with the developer you could ask him what the code values are for game.game_level_id.