Heads Up SNGs...

[Talking Poker]

That's sweet.

I hope we are all in Vegas at the same time this year. I'd really like to chat with him sometime.

Does he play cash games? I assume he's decided HU SNGs are more profitable for him, and I wonder why.

[Zybomb]

He plays cash games live (although a lot less often now that he's been crushing it online) but not much online -- he says he has a tough time adjusting to cash games because he plays too aggressively against too many stations... hes also paranoid about collusion

[Talking Poker]

No collusion in HU!

[Zybomb]

right -- i was referring to full ring/6 max cash games not HU cash games

[Talking Poker]

I was going to make a new thread about this, but since we've already got a good discussion going here (or had one going, I should say) and I already said most of what I wanted to say anyway, I'll just post my results (and edit the thread title a bit).

I played 163 $200+10 HU SNGs on Full Tilt this month. I went 98-65.

That's a 60% win rate, which happens to exactly match what we were talking about earlier in this thread (and I hadn't run the numbers until right now - I was just guessing).

Total Buys Ins: $34,230
Total Profit: $4970
ROI: 14.5%

That's straight earnings. I won't add in the $925 in bonus money I cleared while playing these (and some cash games too), but I will add in the rakeback, since I can count on that every month.

Total Rake: $1630
27% Rakeback: $440

Add that to the total profit and we're now looking at $5410, which is a 15.8% ROI.

I know we said a 60% win rate was reasonable, but I personally still don't think that a 16% ROI is sustainable in the long run. I think 163 is an ok sample size (if one of you math guys wants to do a standard deviation or something on that, please do), but I don't think it's nearly big enough to determine an expected ROI.

I do think it's safe to say a 10% ROI would be sustainable for me at this level (including RB and everything). So applying that to $200+10 SNGs, I think I can expect to earn $21 for each one that I play. I'm not sure how many I can play in an hour, but I'm pretty sure it's more than the 5 required to earn $100 an hour.

Not bad.

Feel free to rip this apart and tell me where my math is wrong, etc.

[Wes]

livb plays HORSE i think. At least some other game, not NLHE.

[Talking Poker]

According to the sharkscope leaderboard, he's up $112k in 2008 from HU NLHE SNGs. I can't verify its accuracy, of course, but that's what it says.