30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[Gordogg]

I don't see how that's humanly possible. I'd definitely take that bet.

[jhill3535]

I don't know if you saw it yet TP, but he changed the escrowing of the funds. Now if you have 10x the wager amount invested in the site you don't have to escrow, but he will still escrow 100% of his portion. This alleviates all the "money better used elsewhere" arguments.

That being said I just doubled down on my bet to $400.

I can see him hitting $2500 in the first 2 weeks, but I think the last week or 2 will kill him.

I am wondering though a bit about the BOP, as I don't think anyone has considered that. He does state in the official rules however that "Sharkscope will be used to verify everything." BOP winnings will not show up in SS, so I don't think he can use that to his advantage.

[jhill3535]

Also, I think that pretty much everyone that has been winning the BOP has been playing 18 mans. I don't think anyone has won any at these lower levels playing 9 mans or 45 mans. He might be able to hit the high orbit with the 45s, but I don't know.

[Talking Poker]

BOP shouldn't count (per his SS comment), but we should confirm that. He can't count that, FPPs, RB, Bonuses or anything like that. This is purely SNG profit.

And that's cool about not having to escrow. Good move on his part. I have more than 50x my bet amount invested, so I should be good to go.

[Windbreaker]

jhill3535 - I don't think you understand how the BOP promo works. 45 man SNGs never counts in the promotion. However, it would pretty easy for any good player to make the top ten of the BOP high orbit with massive amounts of volume. Most people might be able to put in 100 SNGs for an orbit once in a week....for a high volume player, you probably could put in six or seven - makes it relatively easy to cash in the high orbit.

Looking at this now, I still don't like his chances at all. There are a few players out there that I have no questions that are better than even money on this wager. Eg. All the Supernova Elite SNG players, QuasiFiction and his brother DNA2RNA, and some of the SNG Icon players, etc.

Having said that, I'm probably going to pass on this bet. I would only want to make a large bet in order for this to be really worthwhile. I'm sure you guys are getting the best of this bet. Not many people can increase the volume of tables/hands so quickly and win at a significantly high rate. Also the 45-man SNGs won't be the deciding factor as to weather he wins this bet or not. The tables take quite some time to get started, the variance is high, and it takes a lot longer to finish than a single table tournament. To give you an example, over my hottest stretch over 500 games, I had a ROI slightly over 50%. At the 5 dollar level - that would only make him $1375. This would also take a lot longer to play out as the $5.50/45 players are regular speed SNGs. If he's winning this bet, it's definately not going to be a result of the 45s.

[Wes]

Any idea how big of a grinder this guy is before this? If he's used to playing a ton, I wouldn't bet against him. If not, I will.

[Talking Poker]

SharkScope msusyr24 on Stars and Tilt.

Year 2008 data:
47 total games played on FT.
1574 total games played on Poker Stars.

If I do an advanced search by month for 2008, he's won over $2000 twice, but barely. His 2008 ROI on Stars is 43%.

But that's including everything. If I make this 2-45 players, no sattelites, but still all stakes, he's played 1405 tourneys in 2008 and has a 37% ROI.

Those are good numbers, but his total 2008 winnings using the above criteria (basically pulling out the 180s and sattys) is $4632.

So to win $5k in 30 days, he's going to have to significantly increase his volume. Maybe he thinks he can do this. But I personally think his ROI is going to drop when he plays crazy volume like that.

It should also be noted that if we filter out everything above $5, he omnly has 174 games played. So he's won most of that money at higher limits. He does have a 56% ROI for $5 and less (no sattys, 45 mans and lower) though.

The most games (filtered as above) he has played in a month so far was 537 in May.

Here are the graphs of his 2008 45 man and lower, no sattelies action...

[Talking Poker]

So why are you not going to take the bet? If you want to make a large bet to make it worthwhile, make a large bet. If you'd rather not escrow the money, I can work something out with you to get at least some of the action under me.

[Windbreaker]

Not betting, because I think I'm missing something. If it sounds too good to be true....

I don't know...seems like he knows something I don't. Storm from what I can tell, the most he's ever played is 567 in a month (from Sharkscope). I'm guessing he's a student with time off now....but I don't see any signs that indicate he's ever multitable 16+ successivelly. (I could be totally wrong and he could be sitting this up???).

I don't know....something just doesn't feel right about it....not worth the potential 1k for a win.