You are a bad player. Trust me on this.

[PShabi]

I think this theory goes with life in general. I've had a "4 year rule" for some time now.

Goes like this:

When I was 17, I thought I knew everything.

At 21, I realized I didn't know shit at 17.

Then you look back and you're 25, and you realize how stupid you were at 21.

In a couple years, I'll look back at 25 and realize I didn't know a damn thing about life.

And on it goes.

[GeoffM]

You know, I'm finding it very eerie that nobody has had any insight into my comment yet .

Anyhow, it is because of the fish that I decided to start bonus-whoring. It is actually proper to play loose when there are more fish at the table, but I have never been able to get myself into that type of mindset. For example, last night I was playing that MTT, and I was at the table with the eventual chip leader the entire time. While I was seeing close to 25% of the flops, I believe he was seeing upwards of 80%. This guy was winning with some of the crappiest cards I have ever seen. Seeing people like this have so much success has really turned me off of the 10-handed tables in the past, and it may very well put me back at 6-max where I think I had most of my success, even if only on a short-term basis.

With online poker comes online luck, simple as that. You have AA UTG and push a significant raise, and have 6-7 fish behind you, you will be a dog if these goofs decide to call. IMO luck is the single biggest factor in online poker, as reads are hard. How do you read a guy who could be whacking off to a porno and playing poker at the same time? You can't physically see him sitting at his monitor so how do you read facials and other things? Maybe he is a good poker player who just happened to get excited at the same time he was dealt 7-2o .

[Talking Poker]

You don't need "reads" to be a winning player. Sure, they help you make those close call decisions in live games, but not so much online. Online, betting patterns are your tells.

You need to get out of the "it's just luck" mindset. Yes, that one time you have AA and get 6 callers you might not win. But deal that same scenario out 1000 times, and you will be WELL AHEAD after all the hands play out.

When I play limit cash game poker, my game becomes very mechanical. Sure, I taylor it a bit based on the table condition and my opponents, but against the average guy, my play doesn't change much based on tells, hunches, whatever. I simply keep trying to make +EV moves, and in the long run, I get paid off.

Poker is about making the correct long term decisions and making your opponents make mistakes. Make less mistakes than your opponents do, and you'll be a winning player. It's as simple as that.

Long term, long term, long term.

[Penguinfan]

I just don't know about that. Especally when it comes to tournaments that aren't much more than blind races.

Look at the $200+15 at RNG Stars, one you made the final table almost nobody has more than 12-14 BB's and ante's. How much skill could one possibly posess to outplay the other 8 players in that situation?

That is just an all-in fest and luckiest guy wins. Certainly it takes skill to get that far, but you need more luck than the other guys as well, or at the very least less bad luck.

When you see people playing absolute rags for tons of chips and catching miracle cards you just can't sell me on the fact that luck doesn't control the majority of outcomes.

I am not even saying it is on-line poker, it's just the game in general, some people are luckier than others.

[Penguinfan]

Hand #7878796-79 at Mon2pmB-010 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 22/Aug/05 15:27:44

wardo71 is at seat 0 with 4035.
ontopher is at seat 1 with 6980.
ocscienceguy is at seat 2 with 0 (sitting out).
lado76 is at seat 3 with 575.
chengong is at seat 4 with 3065.
Topcntrlr is at seat 5 with 4885.
Iron_City is at seat 6 with 2575.
penguinfan is at seat 8 with 2685.
PopsH515 is at seat 9 with 3530.
The button is at seat 4.

Topcntrlr posts the small blind of 75.
Iron_City posts the big blind of 150.

wardo71: -- --
ontopher: -- --
lado76: -- --
chengong: -- --
Topcntrlr: -- --
Iron_City: -- --
penguinfan: Kd Ad
PopsH515: -- --

Pre-flop:

penguinfan raises to 525. PopsH515 folds. wardo71
folds. ontopher folds. lado76 calls. chengong
folds. Topcntrlr folds. Iron_City folds.

Flop (board: 9h 2h 5c):

penguinfan bets 150. lado76 goes all-in for 50.
penguinfan is returned 100 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

lado76 shows Ts Ah.
penguinfan shows Kd Ad.


Turn (board: 9h 2h 5c Td):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 9h 2h 5c Td 4c):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

lado76 has Ts Ah 9h 5c Td: a pair of tens.
penguinfan has Kd Ad 9h 5c Td: ace high.


Hand #7878796-79 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
lado76 wins 1375 with a pair of tens.
----------------------------------------------------------------



For those wondering about the small bet at the flop, it's because it was me and one other person and he only had 50 chips left.

A beautiful 3-outer, AND THE COIN LANDS ON TAILS AGIAN!!!!

Not about luck my ass.

[GeoffM]

I agree whole-heartedly with what PenguinFan said regarding the tournaments.

I'll tell you guys right now, that tournament I was in last night, if I sat down with these guys and played a limit tourney with say set blinds of $0.25/0.50 or whatever and we all sat down with $100, then I guarantee I am paying $100 rake and taking the other $900 off the table. The fact all the other donkeys at the table were just giving each other their chips led to my downfall, because while I did have a great hand when I busted (I held A357, flop came 46K), I was screwed. The donkey I referred to above that ended up being chip leader had A6710, and was calling me with a pair of sixes. Looking at my hand, I had the huge wrap with a very good low draw that would have held up had any low card hit. Insteadh, the jackass spikes a 10 on the turn and a 9 comes on the river and he takes a huge pot while I almost punch my computer. You guys, I see you a lot of times posting bad beats when you had 10-12 outs, but unless I've gone insane, I knew in this hand I needed any 8, 7, 5, 3, 2 for the scoop and any A would have given me at least half. Not including this bastards hand, I had 17 outs AFTER the flop at the scoop and 20 outs to at least half the pot. This is after the flop. What would that make me, about a 70% favorite to hit one of these on either the turn or river?

I know online poker is more than just luck, but sometimes those MASSIVE draws just don't hit. The only reason I get pissed is because it seems all-too-often lately some guy will be a huge dog to me and low-and-behold, he somehow catches the "Miracle on 34th Street" and takes the pot. I don't mean to sound like Helmuth when I say "If there was no luck in poker I'd win every tourney", because noone is good enough to win every tourney, but I just think that in general a lot of times odds don't necessarily hold up. I can't remember how many times in the last 2 weeks my 20+ outers have not hit (and yes, in O8 it is very common to have 20+ outers). I can guarantee however that they haven't been hitting at the 70% or whatever clip that they should be.

Mind you, I guess I shouldn't bitch too much, since I am in the green (or black, or whatever), but sometimes I just start to think what might have been had this or that not happened.

[Penguinfan]

Geoff, funny you should bring up Omaha Hi/lo, I was playing earlier in a $25 PLO ring game and one hand that sticks out (for reasons I probably shouldn't mention) is when I holding ATJ8 in the BB and flop is AAT, I slow play it, turn is 6 if I remember right and I bet the pot, get called, the river is a 8 so I go from nut full to nut fuller (?) and push the pot again, get called by someone with a naked ace in his hand, BUT we split because he has like 90th best low hand.

I got him to make a horrible call based on the way I played a previous hand and still had to split it, that one sucked.

Though I am sure he doesn't remember it that way and probably thinks he played it just fine.

[GeoffM]

Got a hand history for me?

I've for the most part managed to stay away from chopping pots in PL for some reason. However, as per the above mentioned scenario I found myself it, I can also often lose a lot of bets making the correct mathematical call.

Give me some more details on the hand. How many callers pre-flop? Blinds? Pot size post-flop?

[johnp158]

If you really think this, why play? Yes, each single tournament involves a lot of luck, and obviously cash games involve luck as well, but you can't really believe that it's JUST luck. You're really willing to keep throwing money into tournaments while you honestly believe that it's just a crapshoot? Like TP is saying, you've gotta operate under the idea that it's about long-term results, and getting your money in with the best hand. For instance, when Geoff talks about getting AA and getting 6 callers, yes, you're a dog to win the pot, but you only need to be 15% to win to make money! If you're 40% to win, you should be making huge amounts of money with aces. I hate when people make commments like "uh oh, AA again. How much am I going to lose here?" That thinking is just so wrong.

Maybe it's easy for me to say this because I've been on a pretty good run playing NL cash games, I don't know. Even with tournaments, which most people agree are not a great way to make steady money, it's like Harrington says: Force your opponents to make the wrong decisions, without the proper odds. If you're doing this, you should be fine. I haven't played nearly enough tournaments to know what it's like to go on huge losing runs, but obviously there are people out there who are doing something right.

I hope I'm not coming across too strong here. I know that you guys don't bitch all the time, but this stuff does seem to be bothering you. You (me too) just have to remember that it's about making the best decisions over and over, and exploiting your big edges whenever you can.

[GeoffM]

John, I'm not trying to bitch, I just think I sometimes get a little greedy .

By the by, I have never posted a bad beat story, that has to count for something .

[Talking Poker]

Good post, john.

At the risk of oversimplifying this:
-Yes, of course there is luck in poker, especially in the short term.
-In the long run though, "luck" evens out for everyone (even you, Penguinfan), and the most skilled players end up with the most money.

It's that simple.

As for how long it takes to reach the long run, I don't have an answer for you, but I can tell you it's one hell of a lot longer than ONE HAND... so I'm sorry, but Exhibit A is inadmissible. Submit 50,000 hands worth of Poker Tracker stats and show me how you only get AA 1 in every 500 hands and when you do, show me that you only win with it 10% of the time. THAT, I will accept as evidence.

I will also likely show you how badly you played your AA, whether you were limping in with it, folding it preflop because you think it's "unlucky" or whatever, but at least we will have real, concrete evidence to work with.

[Penguinfan]

I only posted that HH because it happened as I was reading this thread.

[Penguinfan]

So when you lose with AA you played it wrong, but the guy who called with KJ and catches a flop of KJ7 played it brilliantly?


I think this very well sums up on-line poker.

[PShabi]

From what I've been reading, 50k is jack shit as well.

On 2+2, there were several posters who have a winrate of 2+BB in LHE who were talking about breakeven streaks in the 50-60k hand range.

Makes me feel better and foolish at the same time about stressing over my teenie-weenie 1BB/100 over 20k.

[Penguinfan]

Same reason I get out of bed in the morning, I hope God is looking the other way and I can sneak one through one of these days.