Probability question

[Talking Poker]

Yes, of course. I was never suggesting otherwise. You'll notice I said "the probability of someone holding" those cards, and not "the probabability of someone having been dealt" those cards before we saw the flop. Obviously the preflop probabilities will never change (other than when you are talking about more than one player, where the number of players makes a difference).

When I'm playing poker, I don't care about past proababilites. Once that flop hits, I don't care what the odds WERE of someone being dealt AA. I care what the odds ARE of them holding AA right now. So I need to use all the information available to me when making decisions, and after the flop, the information from the flop is available!

The most practical example I can think of is this: If you are holding KK, which of these two flops would you rather see?
A92
AA9

I would much rather see the second, because with two Aces on the board, it is less likely that one of my opponents is holding one of the remaining two Aces. Take it one step farther:
A92
AA9
AAA

Now I'd rather see flop #3, because now it's even LESS LIKELY that someone is holding a hand better than mine. You can talk about all the preflop probabilities that you want, but I promise you that your KK will be the best hand much more often against a random hand (or random hands) when the flop is AAA then when it is AA9 or when it is A92. And believing otherwise will certainly affect your game.