Thursday Night CFB

[Penguinfan]

I'm not busting on you, hey I haven't been all that impressive recently, still up I think, but not killing it.

The problem with the bets you made on this game is you really painted yourself into a corner and were basically hoping for a shutout on Auburns part.

How many final scores could have made BOTH bets go your way?

As soon as SC (or any dog in with these lines) scores even 10 points you are gonna need exactly a 27-10 score to win both bets. I say that because how many times do you see a team score 25 or 26 points?

Never take UNDER a low total and lay more than 6 points in the same game. You really would have had to have almost a perfect line on this game to win both bets.

Personally I would have thought you go 1-1 on those bets, bad break losing them both, but there was little chance you could win both simply because of the fine line you were walking.


I'll throw in a handicappping 101 lesson here, ever notice how close Vegas is on so many games to the actual score and totals? Vegas has one team favored by 6 points and they win by 7 of have the total at 44 and it lands on 43??? Granted they miss some by a wide margain, but a lot of times they are really close.

Start your handicapping with the line, say it's -6 and 43, first thing I do is write down the final score of the favorite winning by 6 with the total points scored as close as possible to the posted total with a reasonable football score.

In this case something like 24-17, this is the kind of game Vegas is predicting it will be, I then work backwards from that score and see how reasonable I think it is for either side to score that number of points, or stop the other team from scoring their needed number of points.

It's not the end all of handicapping, but it is a great place to start.