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Old 10-30-12, 07:35 PM
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Anyone else watch this?

Michael Esposito played just about as bad as humanly possible. Like 1 out of 10 bad. Flatting 1/7th of his stack from the SB with 87s. Flatting 1/6th from the blind w A5o and KTs (although there is something to be said about flatting and leading all flops for added fold equity, but that wasnt what he was doing) Raised pre and just never cbet in position and then just folded the turn when opponent stabbed, even on favorable boards like 2264 when he has AJ. Smh.

The Hungarian guy literally spewed off 80 Bigs w KQo w a 6 bet shove in a terrible spot. Musthave been told about the QJ 5 bet and was steaming, but the scenarios were different here...wow just wow.

Merson ran good, maybe call too many 3 bets and folded, but played very well. Sylvia continued to run good. I thought Ausmus played a great game considering he was short from the get go, still did his thing and didn't nit it up completely.
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Old 11-01-12, 10:28 AM
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Man the 3 handed day 2 was ridiculous. 11 hours before an elimination.

- These guys tank wayyy too long unnecessarily except Merson

There's plenty of stuff to comment on, but as for the final hand I think Sylvia's call is bad, but not as bad as it it initially appears. Merson over shoving on his 4 bet is air or a small to mid pair a very large % of the time. With AK/AQ or JJ+ he is going to 4 bet normal, not over shove as he is trying to leave Sylvia rope to hang himself, not try and scare off the very hands that he wants to call (dominated Aces, smaller pairs). As far as AT/AJ, KQ/KJ, again i think if they 4 bet, they 4 bet normal, not so much for value as in group 1 but in the sense that if they overshove and are called these hands are in pretty bad shape against Sylvia's calling range (assuming no leveling is going on) but by 4 betting normal they may get looked up with lighter hands or shoved on with lighter hands...

So all that being said I think Merson's range is heavily skewed to small-mid pairs and air, so the call isn't as bad as it initially appears w QJ and nearly 10 mill of your 79mil stack in.

That being said. Sylvia has 40 Bigs after the 3 bet. You came too far to call it all off w Q high. You can pick better spots. I know Vanessa said in shock "he...CALLED w that???" when she saw the hands. Even his "air" could be ahead (as it was) and otherwise he's on the bad end of a flip a lot for his whole stack.... heads up.... in the main event?!?!?
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Old 11-03-12, 09:48 AM
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A few thoughts on what I saw.

Pre final table: Some of the worst short stack play I've ever seen by Hille and Baumann.(there were others, too, but theirs was the most obvious) My best guess is that there is so much outside earning potential for being in the final 9, that just playing for that trumps playing to win.

Pace of Play: I agree 100% with Daniel N that tournaments need a "shot clock." Even with 2 hour levels, taking 2+ minutes on each decision effects other players much more than exposing a card when HU on the river to get a read.

Minraise mania: This reached its absurdist extreme with the outbreak of button limping 3-handed. Want an old-timer like Doyle to eat your lunch short-handed? Play like that. Prior to the final table I screamed every time the BB folded to a minraise. Really? With antes in there and 200 BB deep? Folding a2c is simply a math error.

Jesse's call: Maybe it was fatigue, maybe he just figured that with the relative stack sizes, he was a money favorite vs Merson's range (math wise, a correct assumption), I think he was reading Merson very well. Either this, or...

The Conspiracy Theory: I got this feeling a couple of times during the FT (and reading some blog reports). I would not be surprised to learn sometime down the road that Merson and Sylvia had made a deal away from the table.

Just my $0.02
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Old 11-03-12, 09:52 AM
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Old 11-03-12, 08:05 PM
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I think the basic logic behind these smaller and smaller sized raises was even (the most extreme, a min raise) offering the BB between 4:1 and 5:1 on a call (depending on ante size) it was still unprofitable for the BB to play bad cards (i.e cards they wouldn't call a 3x raise lets say) OOP against tricky opponents capable of barreling multiple streets... so even against a BB who defends nearly ATC, they are still coming out ahead when combining the fact of the extra chips saved the time they are 3 bet and fold (since 3 betting is so much more common these days)

As far as the button limping thing that Merson initiated (and was followed eventually by others), I think the logic behind that was 2 parts.

1) It forced Jake Balsiger to play the hand (assuming Sylvia didn't raise) and Merson thought he had a giant postflop edge vs him and could make more profit in getting Balsiger to make large post flop mistakes than he would to steal his blind, which is much easier to counter (just start 3 betting a lot)

2) It kept things from getting into a crazy leveling war of 3 4 and 5 betting preflop, where there's only so much edge that one can have when everyone only has 2 cards, as opposed to post flop where players can make glaring errors

not sure how keen on it i am, but I do know a fairly respected tourny player who was talking w me this past summer on how if it's folded around to him on the button, he likes to limp a lot hands rather than raise against Blinds who will 3 bet button raises a lot. He says a lot of the time the SB will complete putting extra money in the pot and then on most boards the blinds will check, he will bet and the blinds fold. Something along the lines of people not fighting much for limp pots and playing way too straight forward. In fact he said pretty much the only time he button raises is against players whose blinds are easy to steal pre and do not defend often.

Again just a point of view, not sure how much i agree or disagree
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Old 11-05-12, 12:06 PM
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People fold the same amount to a Min raise as they do to a 3x so it gives the raiser better odds to steal so not surprised that is the norm. Next Thing is going to be calling a min raise and leading the flop, you know stuff I did 3-4 years ago.
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