Kopp's Big Hand With Moon

[Zybomb]

In case you didn't see it I'll recap. Play is 12 handed, 2 6 handed tables. Payouts for 10-12th are identical.

To the best of my knowledge Kopp has roughly 20 Million and Moon has roughly 25 Million. The avg is about 11 Mill. Both are top 4 stacks. Moon (from TV only) seems to be playing fairly abc but has been dealt a lot of hands,

Kopp opens the 120k/240k blinds with 53 to 600k . Moon calls out of the SB

Flop: K92

Moon Checks, Kopp bets 750k into a 1.6 Mill. Moon calls

Turn: 2

Moon checks, Kopp bets just over 2 Million. Moon check raises to 6 Million. Kopp shoves for almost 19 total

Over playing his hand? Played Correctly? How would you play different?

(folding pre is not an option in your responses)

[Windbreaker]

I think it's pretty bad. Especially given the situation - deep stacked, WSOP ME final table bubble, against an amateur.

The preflop and flop play is what I consider standard.

On the turn, when the board pairs and he's checked to, I think it's best to check behind here....cause if the river is a blank, we can either call a value bet from Moon or bet it ourselves if checked to.

When he gets checked raised on the turn - he can only beat semi-bluffs. His shove is wreckless. You can not expect Moon to fold a full house / flush in this spot...cause he's an amateur. You are guessing what an amatuer will do here.

Our hand is really just a bluff catcher now - I don't expect to many 2's in Moon range. If that's the case why not call and peel one off with position. If you're beat, there's a lot of river cards that can slow him down and you'll get more information. By shoving, you let all worse hands fold and most better hands call.

Given the way Moon played the hand - you should expect him to have:

A flush, full house, or pair+flush draw. Your 5 high flush doesn't have very good equity vs this range of hands.

With the amount of chips he had at this stage of the tournament, there's no way he should ever be all in without a hand close to the nuts. He literally cost himself million(s) - in equity at least.

[Zybomb]

I agree with pretty much your entire analysis except for this part.
I think this turn is an autobet for several reasons

1) WE HAVE A FLUSH!!!

lol, but seriously beyond that, I think there's a ton of value to be gained by betting here from Kx, pair and diamond combos and simply one big diamond.

that being said I think his bet was a little too large. He bet about 2 mill into a 3.1 after betting 750k into a 1.6 on the flop. I think on the turn I bet more along the lines of 1.5 - 1.6 to convince lesser hands to continue

I think we're also not giving Moon enough consideration here. You mentioned he's an amateur and yes he is. He is an amateur on the verge of the Nov 9 bubble and has seemingly been playing pretty straight forward and being hit with the deck. I don't think he's going to get out of line with some weird check raise here unless he has a very big hand in the spot that he's in, so we don't really have to worry too much about FPS from him here.

That of course would lead to the last Q.... so if I bet the turn WTF do I do when Im c/red?

We're 6 handed so our hand is enormous obviously....but I did just mention that Moon is unlikely to get out of line in THIS fashion. Like you said 2s arent in his range much if at all and I dunno wtf he could have thats not a flush or better that plays it in this fashion. I assume I'd probably bet/call the turn (convincing myself he has some pair/large diamond combos enough of the time but will shut down the river with these hands since he doesnt want to risk the majority of his large stack when we've showed so much interested unless hes stronger than us) and then fold the river to a shove. My turn bet would've been smaller so the turn c/r would've been smaller also, leaving me with a large stack

Had this hand occurred against an aggressive player unaffected by the final table bubble approaching etc, then it'd change matters IMO

There's obviously nothing wrong with checking behind the turn to induce a bluff on the river (or a lighter call down) but i think we lose value from lots of hands/decline to protect our hand against large diamonds, but yes I think shoving is very bad.

[JDMcNugent7]

Is moon the huge dude that seems decent and is just a total cardrack? the big guy, whoever that is, hit's everything, seriously everything, and he admits it, says hes never ran so amazing before.


anyway, I think I'd bet turn and def call his raise and if the board doesnt change much call river. Obv I'd hope to have a better read and a better idea what to do if I'd been playing with the dude for hours

[Reel Deal]

Yeah, he's the big dude wearing the Saints cap.

[BlibbityBlabbity]

They showed Moon bluffing a couple of times PF, but never getting out of line at all postflop (beyond a continuation).

I think given the hands he has shown up with the CR by Moon is the end of the hand. No way he doesn't have the flush beat. If he had a 2, given his play in some other hands he either bets out or C/Cs.

I think a call on the turn would have been better given the paired board, crappy flush, and situation in the Main Event with 2 big stacks. Moon doesn't want to bluff much of his huge stack here either.

Crazy, man....Crazy!