The TalkingPoker.com Forum  

Go Back   The TalkingPoker.com Forum > Off Topic > Sports
Register Blogs Arcade HH Converter Calendar Mark Forums Read

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-16-09, 08:39 PM
Kurn's Avatar
Kurn Kurn is offline
cha'DIch of the Poker Gods
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Warwick, RI
Posts: 3,584
Kurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep Points
Default 2 Decisions

1. MJD refusing to score the TD so the Jags can take time off the clock.

OK, no issue with Drew's decision. But Del Rio is an idiot for running the clock down to 2 seconds and no time outs when a mishandled snap loses them the game. Spike the ball with 8-10 seconds and a TO left so you can have 2 chances at the win in the event of a bad snap.

Too many NFL coaches coach scared.

OK, after that, you know what's next

2. Belichick's insane 4th and 2 call.

I just wonder if he makes the same decision if the Jets had won.
__________________
"Animals die, friends die, and I shall die. But the one thing that will never die is the reputation I leave behind."

Old Norse adage
  #2  
Old 11-16-09, 08:58 PM
Reel Deal's Avatar
Reel Deal Reel Deal is offline
I'm on a boat
 

Join Date: May 2005
Location: NE Fla
Posts: 6,651
Blog Entries: 3
Reel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default

Couple things... for the record, it was Del Rio that instructed them not to score a TD, that's why MJD took a knee (he didn't think of that on his own). So, I think that was pretty heady thinking by the coach. However, I completely agree with you on the time management for the game winning FG... as it was happening I even said to my son, "What is he doing? The need to call timeout with about 8 seconds left in case they have a bad or mishandled snap on the FG try." Yeah, that was dumb.

On Belichick, I don't know that going for it is as bad as some people are saying. If the guy doesn't bobble that ball they get the first down and the game is likely over. I really think Manning's chances from 70-80 yards away with more than 2 minutes, 2 time outs and 4 downs to work with aren't much different than his chances from 30 yards away. Anyway, it was certainly interesting.
__________________
GO GREEN!!! GO WHITE!!!
  #3  
Old 11-16-09, 09:02 PM
Windbreaker Windbreaker is offline
Shark
 

Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 988
Windbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsWindbreaker has between 1000 and 1499 Rep Points
Default

In terms of the Bellichick's call....in terms of winning percentage it's probably the better option.

I'm not sure how you put numbers to it...but say they convert the 4th down 50% of time. 50% of the time they run the clock out and win for sure. The other 50% they leave 2 minutes and Indy the ball at the 30. Say Indy will score a TD 65% of the time.

The chances NE wins = 0.5+0.5*(1-0.65) = 0.675

If they just punt the ball Indy will get the ball on avg at their own 30? Does Indy score a touchdown greater than one out of every three attempts with two minutes to go in that situation.

These are just numbers I made up...maybe NE makes a first down more often...then it makes his call even better.
  #4  
Old 11-16-09, 09:02 PM
GTDawg GTDawg is offline
Poker? Yeah, three times a night!
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,264
GTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep Points
Default

1. I'm not sure I like this call. I mean, you are losing at this point in the game. Bad snap, kicker flubs, a gust of wind, whatever. Your best player is one yard from walking in to the endzone and you are giving up a guaranteed lead.

I really can't believe that Del Rio has that little faith in his defense.

The way it played out, I don't see how you can run the clock down and leave it all up to one play. That compounds the problem by first giving up the automatic lead and then leaving the entire game up to one play when you have multiple chances to win.

2. Punt the ball and make Peyton Manning go 80 yards. Of course, earlier in the fourth Manning went 80 yards twice in the same amount of time.

But, come on...

I don't see how you can risk giving Manning the ball with 30 yards and 2 minutes.
__________________
"And that's how you play aces."

Yeah, you make kings run in to them.
  #5  
Old 11-16-09, 09:29 PM
Zybomb's Avatar
Zybomb Zybomb is offline
TP Live Ring Specialist
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 6,606
Blog Entries: 7
Zybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default

I was at the Jets game. The MJD decision was very smart. Rex Ryan even instructed the Jets to let him score, once they got down to the 14, but we couldn't even do that correctly! I would've saved a few more seconds in case of a botched snap though, but saying that they don't trust their D bc they didn't go in the endzone is just crazy. Why even entertain the possibility of a Jet comback drive if you can just run the clock out first? how often is a chip shot FG the length of an extra point missed? I'd say less often than the Jets could mount a drive in 1:30 that could get them in FG range for a very reliable Feely

As far as Belichick's decision, I think it was insanely stupid. If this were any other coach in the league, he'd be getting chewed out beyond belief. You have a 6 point lead, punt the ball and make them go 80 yards and they need to score a TD.

The sickest thing is that with how bad the Jets have been playing and how good the Pats have, if we win next week we're only 1 game back from the division!... and The Jets seem to find ways to beat the teams we're supposed to lose to (Texans/Pats back to back this year, Titans/Pats back to back on the road last year) despite losing to teams they should kill...
__________________
"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents."

Last edited by Zybomb; 11-16-09 at 09:33 PM.
  #6  
Old 11-16-09, 10:03 PM
Kurn's Avatar
Kurn Kurn is offline
cha'DIch of the Poker Gods
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Warwick, RI
Posts: 3,584
Kurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep PointsKurn User has between 2000 and 2499 Rep Points
Default

I definitely don't think it is as bad now as I thought at midnight last night.

Windbreaker makes a good point. it's really a lot closer decision than most people think, especially when the biggest downside(in light of how well they're playing now)is they forfeit the chance of best record in the conference, which wasn't a given any way.

And that guy that bobbled the ball, Kevin Faulk, is one of the unsung key players in the team's success in the last 8 years.

Oh, and Sebastian Vollmer is a beast at OT. He keeps this up and somebody else will be paying Matt Light his next contract.
__________________
"Animals die, friends die, and I shall die. But the one thing that will never die is the reputation I leave behind."

Old Norse adage
  #7  
Old 11-16-09, 10:10 PM
GTDawg GTDawg is offline
Poker? Yeah, three times a night!
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,264
GTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep PointsGTDawg has between 1000 and 1499 Rep Points
Default

I don't follow these lines. I think you may have mixed up your scores.

A TD by Jacksonville puts them ahead 28-22. A reliable Feely doesn't help them much on a field goal.

---
I just assume score a TD and then stopping the rookie QB from driving his team down the field in 1:30.
__________________
"And that's how you play aces."

Yeah, you make kings run in to them.
  #8  
Old 11-16-09, 10:17 PM
Zybomb's Avatar
Zybomb Zybomb is offline
TP Live Ring Specialist
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 6,606
Blog Entries: 7
Zybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsZybomb has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default

Yea that was a brain fart....

Regardless though the chances of The Jets going down in a 2 minute drill and scoring a TD to win the game are higher than Scobee missing a extra point chip shot

going strictly by stats in his career Josh Scobee is 178-181 in Extra Points .... that's roughly 1 miss in every 60 attempts (and 41-42 of FGs attempted from 29 yards or less). Surely the Jets will run a 2 minute drill and score a TD more often than 1 in 60 ...
__________________
"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents."

Last edited by Zybomb; 11-16-09 at 10:22 PM.
  #9  
Old 11-16-09, 11:41 PM
Reel Deal's Avatar
Reel Deal Reel Deal is offline
I'm on a boat
 

Join Date: May 2005
Location: NE Fla
Posts: 6,651
Blog Entries: 3
Reel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep PointsReel Deal has between 3000 and 3499 Rep Points
Default

Agreed.
__________________
GO GREEN!!! GO WHITE!!!
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:43 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2004-2008 TalkingPoker.com