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#26
12-10-04, 04:30 PM
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There have been some really crazy signings recently. Injury prone Troy Glaus get $45 mil, Steve Finley gets almost $10 mil a year to patrol the spacious center field in Dodger Stadium until hes 41!, and the DBacks give Russ Ortiz something like 4/34. Some of the recent signings are insane, and it makes me wonder what some GMs are thinking this offseason.
Carl Pavano is reportedly being offered 4/40+, who knows what Beltran will get, injury prone and aging guys are already getting upwards of $10m/year, guys like Kris Benson, Jaret Wright, and Eric Milton are getting $7-8 mil a year, while Odalis Perez is reportedly only being offered $15 million for 3 years, and the best FA pitcher on the market currently has a grand total of....2 teams bidding for him. Sometimes its hard to fathom what some baseball execs are thinking.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#27
12-11-04, 12:11 PM
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Sox reportedly signed David Wells to a 2 year deal worth 8 million + incentives. I have a feeling that a lot of the high ticket free agents are gonna sign in the next week, especially Pavano, Pedro, and Renteria, not to mention the possible trade of Tim Hudson.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#28
12-13-04, 03:12 PM
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finley signed with the angels, and that's actually i think a great deal for them. he's a gold glover, he plays well under his age, and he averages 150+ games a year. wells is a decent signing, but i probably wouldn't have guaranteed him the 2nd year. already a crazy offseason..
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#29
12-13-04, 03:30 PM
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Right, wrong SoCal team. Anyways, I think the Angels are going to regret this signing. He's been declining offensively the last three years to the point where last year he had .330 OBP and I don't think those GGs mean a whole lot, UZR has Finley pegged as a -23 defender the past 3 years.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#31
12-14-04, 03:10 PM
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He has been declining offensively the past three years.
2002: .287/.370/.499 2003: .287/.363/.500 2004: .271/.333/.490 His walk rate also dropped for the third season from 11.3% in '02, to 9.8%, to 8.8% last year. And Gold Gloves is one of the last things I would use to measure defense, among the Gold Glove winners from '04 are Jim Edmonds, a player whose range is pretty average and routinely jogs after fly balls to set up dramatic catches, Derek Jeter, who is widely regarded as having one of the worst ranges for a shortstop in baseball, and Bret Boone, who was below league average defensively for a second baseman in pretty much every statistical category this year.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#32
12-14-04, 03:50 PM
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I dislike Edmonds as much as anyone else and he does dive to make a dramatic catch but I think he has good range. He has made some of the most spectaculat catches i have seen. In all directions. I feel bad now writing goods things about this pud.
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#33
12-14-04, 04:11 PM
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Edmonds probably does have one of the best abilities among major league outfielders of making unorthodox big catches, like his leaping catches that have saved a few HRs over the years. But I'm not sure if any current defensive metrics take these kinds of things into account, or if they'd even be significant enough over the course of a season to change anything. I do wonder how good of an outfielder Edmonds would be if he went all out after anything he could get near, add that with his ability to make the dramatic catches and he could probably be an amazing defensive player in all aspects.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#34
12-14-04, 10:39 PM
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wow yes that sure seems like a dramatic downswing in offensive numbers. those numbers are actually so close it shows what a CONSISTENT player finley is. is he a superstar? no. is he a VERY solid outfielder with good pop, a good glove, some speed, and he's durable.
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#35
12-15-04, 03:00 PM
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I think you're missing the most important trend.
OBP 2002: .370 2003: .363 2004: .333 On base percentage is probably the most important offensive stat and Finley's has been steadily declining, and this year even his BA and SLG% showed signs of dropping off. His decreasing walk rate, which probably has the most predictive value of any of these stats, is also not a promising sign.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#39
12-15-04, 03:31 PM
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I don't remember ever saying that nothing else is important. And at least read the book before you criticize it, Moneyball was not about OBP being the most and only important stat in baseball, far from it. Moneyball was about finding inefficiencies in the baseball market, or finding skill sets that are widely undervalued by most people, and exploiting these things to maximize the production you get from line up without spending $80+ million.
His defense by UZR is not good, and his patience and ability to get on base have been in decline. I'm not saying this is a terrible signing, just that I don't think it was the smartest idea to commit $20 million to a center fielder whos gonna be 40 or over for the entire deal.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#40
12-16-04, 02:00 AM
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well when you become GM of a major league organization go ahead and pass on finley while getting in the beltran sweepstakes and see where that gets you. finley was the best CF on the market besides carlos beltran, and his asking price is ridiculous. i do not think he will decline, i think he's been a very consistent player over the years, and every GM/scout asked about the finley signing agreed it was a great signing for the angels.
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#41
12-16-04, 11:39 AM
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Sorry my opinion doesn't agree with what a few interviewed GMs and scouts said, the numbers show that Finley is starting to decline, because of that I don't think that it was the greatest idea to commit that much money over two years to him. I'm reading on espn now that its only $13 million instead of the $20 that was initially reported. If the contract is for only $13 then this is obviously a better signing than I originally thought, but it still carries some risk.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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#43
12-17-04, 04:04 PM
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Why does me defending my opinion turn into me "scraping for reasons to still be right"? He's a center fielder who's over 40, his patience at the plate and on base skills have been declining, and UZR does not have him as a good defensive center fielder, thats why I think this is a somewhat risky signing. I don't care if I'm considered "right" by anyone, I'm just supporting my opinion. Sorry if you have a problem with that.
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"When I cut my finger, that's a tragedy. When you fall down a manhole and die, that's a comedy." -- Mel Brooks |
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I think finley is a good sign by the angels. It also looks like Renteria to Boston is a done deal. I think that is a really good pickup for them.
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