Screwing the bookies???

Robbie Robb · #1 02-03-08, 01:57 PM

Okay, I had this thought the other day. Let me know what's wrong with it (cuz I *KNOW* I gotta be missing something here).

Now please keep in mind that my limit of sports betting is....umm...limitied. Let's use the Superbowl today as my example.

So after the AFC/NFC championship games the favourite (Pats right?) declare that one of their Star players is out with a non-game related injury (twisted ankle playing volleyball or some stupid shit). It would have to be a big enough injury/big enough star to seriously skew the odds in the other team's favour. Prior to the big game there's media coverage (ahhh..bless those paparazzi) showing the player hobbling with a walking cast and crutches and the odds continue to tip in the Giants' favour. So now we get to game day and all of a sudden....TA DA! Star player is in fine form. Of course by this time it's too late for the bookies who have taken the bets at staggeringly different odds than what will instantly become.

Would this not result in the bookies taking a HUGE loss (assuming the Pats did go on to dominate and win)? Now obviously there would still need to be a huge amount bet on the Pats. But hey, the players have friends and family right???

On a semi-related note - would this be considered cheating - artificially inflating the Giants' sense of where they are in relation to the Pats? Here they are thinking "Yes! We have a GREAT chance of winning this now! We're gonna win!" and then all of a sudden it becomes "We're gonna wi...WTF??? Oh shit." Would the NFL take a dim view on this?

jillaj · #2 02-03-08, 02:02 PM

Yes the NFL would most likely hit whoever did this with the biggest fine and number of suspensions ever. The NFL is so popular because of gambling even if they don't want to admit it. Thats why teams are supposed to be honest about the injury reports and wehy people have been fined for not putting people on there or leaving them off.

skippy76 · #3 02-03-08, 02:36 PM

thats why injury reports come out on wednesdays, but most bookies would b ok anyways, they only slide the odds or spread to get action to equal out...sometimes this isnt possible, but 99% of the time bookies dont try tomake money off of the action,but the juice

besides, everyone knows brady was faking hurt

MAYHEM45 · #4 02-03-08, 02:55 PM

Its alot lower than 99%, why do you think vegas is so rich? 10% juice?

Robbie Robb · #5 02-03-08, 03:01 PM

Yeah like I said - I was sure there was something that I wasn't seeing. So if I understand Skippy correctly - injuries are reported on Wednesday and then, even if there is a miraculous recovery the person still can't play that game? If so, then yep, that right there shoots my fake-injury ploy all to hell.

Talking Poker · #6 02-03-08, 03:59 PM

Simply explained - pick any spread you want.

If you bet $100 on the Pats and Kurn (obv) bets $100 on the Giants - with me as the bookie, of course - one of you wins, one of you loses, and I don't care. I just scoop my $10.

It's kind of like poker sites not caring who wins big pots or tourneys or whatever. They get their rake either way.

skippy76 · #7 02-03-08, 11:41 PM

a bookie never wants to be on the line for anything, they want as many bets to cancel out as possible... and when you think about it...something in the neighborhood of 1 billion or more will be bet on super bowl.... that 100 million in juice

skippy76 · #8 02-03-08, 11:46 PM

injury report is updated daily, if a player is listed as out on sat, they cant play

Robbie Robb · #9 02-04-08, 08:56 AM

Ah - thanks! Wasn't sure how the NFL handled it. (Seriously - soooo not a football person here...)

Wes · #10 02-04-08, 09:16 AM

[x] wrong

there are tons of times the line is off by how much the betting public likes one side more than the other.

Reel Deal · #11 02-04-08, 10:19 AM

I'm pretty sure under the scenario RR is wondering about the player would be listed as doubtful and would therefore still be eligible to play.

bdawg31 · #12 02-04-08, 10:34 AM

This is true - but in an ideal world, if the bookie (a non-gambling bookie) had his choice, he would have the exact amount bet on both sides of a game and make a guaranteed profit on each and every game.

But, as you point out, the public will tend to bet on one side or the other of a line - so that creates the 'variance' for the bookie, which is when he has his 'good weekends' and his 'bad weekends'. I think in theory that all washes though - i.e. sometimes the public is right and sometimes its wrong.

But the bookie/sportsbooks want the bets to be equal - that is why the lines move. To try to get people to bet the other way when one side gets bet on too heavy.